Keep it simple and back red-hot Antoine Griezmann to score first in an Atletico Madrid win at Celtic writes Sky Sports' Lewis Jones....
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Griezmann to score first in Atletico win @ 6/17.00
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French star has seven goals in last five games
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Celtic Park no longer a fortress on European nights
Celtic v Atletico Madrid
Wednesday 25 October, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports
Celtic are in danger of making it back-to-back embarrassing Champions League campaigns by repeating last year's fourth-place finish in the group having failed to win a single game.
The Scottish champions followed a 2-0 opening defeat in Feyenoord with a 2-1 home defeat against Lazio last time out. They conceded the winner five minutes into added time. It's now or never for Brendan Rodgers' side.
Nothing to fear for La Liga giants
Celtic's defeat to Lazio showed again that Celtic Park is no longer a tough place for visiting European teams. Lazio are no great shakes but emerged with maximum points.
Not only have the Scottish champions won only one of their last 23 Champions League matches (D5 L17), Celtic are also without a home win now in 11 home Champions League group games, losing nine.
Those who have backed Atletico Madrid into 5/61.84 are obviously aware of Celtic's wretched recent European run. They are now coming up against a team that have won six games in a row in all competitions, including dispatching Real Madrid 3-1. I can totally see why the away win has shortened. I'm happy to follow the money.
An unlikely home win, if you fancy Rodgers' Bhoys to pull off the upset, is trading at 11/43.75.
Griezmann the man for a big occasion
Antoine Griezmann remains one of the best players in the world. And it's a tad surprising to see we can fill our boots at 5/16.00 for him to score first at Celtic Park.
Few have the intelligence the Frenchman possesses - that is the beauty of Griezmann as a footballer, he reads a game like no other and could even be getting better with age.
Opposition players think they have him covered but it takes just one moment of guile to change a game - that's why he's so dangerous. He can hurt you at any moment, from all over the pitch.
His deadly performances for France at the 2022 World Cup, playing as an unorthodox central midfielder, remain fresh in the memory. Yet again he showed that he was made for the big occasion.
Kylian Mbappe may grab the headlines for France but Griezmann makes them tick - he is their key cog. Just look at Griezmann's record of 11 goals and seven assists in 28 games at major tournaments. He isn't raved about enough.
I love to invest in players who deliver when it matters most in the big competitions - the bigger the stage, the bigger the certainty of a guaranteed performance is the way my betting brain likes to play such scenarios. I'm all over him for this one.
Unfortunately for Celtic, the man for a big occasion arrives in simply barnstorming form in front of goal, too. Confidence levels should be off the chart for a player who has scored seven goals in his last five Atletico appearances, including a hat-trick in their 3-0 La Liga victory at Celta Vigo on Saturday.
There is a huge amount to like regarding his prospects of netting the opening goal at the advertised odds, including the bonus of him being the penalty taker should Atletico get a spot kick.
Combining him to score first in an away win does seem a simple shout, but sometimes the best bets are the ones staring you in the face. Indeed, simplicity of approach is always the best.
Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, is Sky Sports' resident betting expert - follow his Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.
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