UEFA Champions League

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid: Back 11/10 Harry Kane punt in predicted stalemate

Bayern Munich striker and England captain Harry Kane
Harry Kane is 11/10 to win two or more fouls

Football royalty meet in a blockbuster Champions League semi-final and Sky Sports' Lewis Jones expects a very cagey game to play out in Munich, where the draw stands as a bet to consider as does Harry Kane's foul lines...


Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
Tuesday April 30, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Back against goals in cagey first leg

No teams in European football history have made more European Cup/Champions League semi-finals than Real Madrid and Bayern Munich.

This is a clash of football royalty.

Carlo Ancelotti's Madrid conjured up more magic in the quarter-finals, fending off attack after attack from Manchester City before doing what they do best in the big moments and coming through in a penalty shootout to dispatch the competition favourites.

Bayern dismissed the second favourites in Arsenal in their quarter-final, showing an unseen resilience to their game over the two-legs to completely stifle the Gunners attack. Madrid are favourites to qualify here over the two legs at 1.654/6 on the Betfair Exchange whilst Bayern can be backed at 2.68/5. Those prices look right to me as I'm expecting Madrid's frontline to overpower Thomas Tuchel's boys in the second leg.

When looking into my football shaped crystal ball to try and predict a likely match scenario, I can see stalemate though in Germany. Pure and utter stalemate in the first leg as both teams won't want to dominate the possession.

Real Madrid are the best counter attacking side in world football so will look to sit back and wait for their chances to hit Vinicius Jnr, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo in transition. Yet, Bayern Munich will so be aware of that threat and Thomas Tuchel organised them into an impressive outfit against Arsenal in the second leg when allowing their opponents the ball.

This will be cat and mouse football for large parts, especially if there isn't an early goal.

If you offered both managers a draw now, I think they'd be taking it. That's a simple way of looking at things when trying to assess the shape of a market but when that outcome is the biggest price of the three options, it's hard to ignore from a betting point of view. The draw is trading at 3.65 on the Betfair Exchange with a Bayern Munich win at 2.588/5 and a Madrid away win available at 2.942/1.

When the under 2.5 line is a runner, which it is here at 2.35/4 on the Exchange, my eyes are inevitably always drawn to the draw prices as 0-0 and 1-1 take up 33 per cent of the available correct scores you can hit for a winner. The draw is a bet.

Back the draw in Bayern v Real @ 3.65

Bet here

Kane remains the master of drawing fouls

Harry Kane scored twice on Saturday to set a new personal record for his most goals in a season. He's bagged an impressive 42 goals across all competitions at Bayern to establish himself as the best all-round central striker in world football. How he deserves a Champions League winners medal to silence the critics that still follow him around.

He is just 7/24.50 to score first and 11/102.11 anytime for this first leg which makes little appeal considering my theory of this game heading down a cagey, risk-adverse avenue.

However, his fouls lines are something to consider for those dabbling on the game. Kane is a bit of a silent assassin when it comes to the dark arts - there are few better in world football than winning fouls and taking the sting out of a game when his team need a breather.

The Bayern front man has won 20 fouls in 10 Champions League appearances for Bayern with 13 of those coming in his last three games against Lazio and then in the two legs with Arsenal where he lured William Saliba and Gabriel into some uncharacteristic rash challenges.

I can see a similar scenario playing out up against the aggressive Antonio Rudiger, who will know all about the skillset Kane possesses from their battles in the Premier League.

Kane is 11/102.11 with the Betfair Sportsbook to be fouled two or more times - a bet that would've romped home in his last three Champions League appearances. I'd expect it to go in again.

Back Back Harry Kane to be fouled +2 times @ 11/102.11

Bet here

Now read Andy Robson's Bet Builder tip for the game in Munich!


Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.


Football... Only Bettor - European semi-finals special - Listen here!

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