African Nations Cup Semi-Final Tips: Burkina Faso will try to frustrate Senegal

Burkina Faso vs Senegal
Wed, 19:00 GMT
Live on BBC Three and Sky Sports

The market sides with Senegal

Senegal are clear favourites and it's hard to argue with their status ahead of their semi-final against Burkina Faso on Tuesday night.

The Lions of Teranga have moved stealthily through the finals and it's easy to see why the market believes they'll have too much class for Burkina Faso.

After a series of low-scoring wins and draws, Senegal burst into life in the second-half of their quarter-final clash with Equatorial Guinea to claim a 3-1 victory.

As gaps opened up, they showed how lethal they can be, their victory handing them momentum heading into this game.

Senegal are 1.910/11 to win in 90 minutes, with Burkina Faso 6.05/1 and The Draw 3.185/40.

With a solid all-round side, Senegal have plenty of arguments in their favour.

Opposing favourites can pay off

Yet it's worth noting the favourites have won in normal-time in only five of the 12 knockout games played at the finals until now.

Opposing the favourites or supporting the underdogs in some way would have been a profitable strategy had you followed it in all knockout games so far.

Burkina Faso are adept at frustrating their opponents, and it's this tactic that has predominantly seen them make the last four.

Other than in their opening-game 2-1 defeat to hosts Cameroon they've not really been outplayed, and even Cameroon needed two goals from the penalty spot in order to win.

After the defeat to Cameroon, Burkina Faso secured consecutive 1-0 victories over Cape Verde and Ethiopia to claim their place in the knockout phase, and made the last eight thanks to a penalty shoot-out win over Gabon (after a 1-1 draw).

In the last eight, they surprised match favourites Tunisia, going ahead through a Dango Ouattara goal on the stroke of half-time, then defending well after the break to secure a 1-0 win.

They might not have enough to win, but Burkina Faso have the organisation and quiet confidence to make life difficult for Senegal.

Low goals on the cards

For that reason, we're predicting a low-scoring encounter, with Burkina Faso likely to take a safety-first approach.

Senegal only really found their attacking rhythm in their last game against Equatorial Guinea when their opponents made mistakes or left gaps at the back.

If Burkina Faso can avoid falling into those traps, they should produce a more secure performance.

Under 2.0 on the Goal Lines market is available at 1.758/11 and that's our selection. And the tournament stats are on our side.

Five of the 10 games these two teams have played between them have had no goals or one goal. Three of their games have had exactly two goals, with only two games having three or more goals.

In the tournament at large, 24 matches have had no goals or one goal, with 11 having exactly two goals, and only 13 having three or more goals.

In the knockout phase, five matches have had no goals or one goal, four matches have had exactly two goals, and only three have had three or more goals (all stats for 90 minutes).

PREM WATCH

With two goals at the tournament so far, Sadio Mane has played a crucial role for Senegal, and all eyes will be on him again here. The Liverpool striker is 2.77/4 to find the net in 90 minutes against Burkina Faso.

Watford's Ismaila Sarr and Crystal Palace's Cheikhou Kouyate were both on target for Senegal in their 3-1 quarter-final win over Equatorial Guinea. They're available to find the net this time at 3.412/5 and 10.09/1 respectively.

For Burkina Faso, Bertrand Traore sat out the last game with a muscle strain and isn't certain to start. The Aston Villa man has got on the scoresheet once at the finals so far. He's 8.07/1 in the Anytime Goalscorer market. Those are appealing odds considering he has netted 13 goals in 62 appearances for Burkina Faso, a record that equates to odds of 5.85/1.