Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Last 16 Tips: Egypt set to struggle as underdogs will shine

Brentford and DR Congo striker Yoane Wissa
Yoane Wissa will be a key player for DR Congo yet again

After making a profit on the tournament so far James Eastham looks at the two Last 16 clashes taking place at the Africa Cup of Nations in Ivory Coast on Sunday...

  • Chaotic build-up for Guinea

  • Opposing Egypt the smart play

  • Put Unders in your Bet Builder selection

Equatorial Guinea vs Guinea - Sunday 17.00

Equatorial Guinea's chances of causing an upset are being underplayed here, making them the selection on Monday afternoon.

Equatorial Guinea are 4.03/1 to win, while Guinea are 2.265/4 and the Draw is 2.962/1. The odds on the underdogs look too big for a couple of reasons.

The first is that Equatorial Guinea had the better record during the group phase. They earned seven points from their three games, topping Group A ahead of Nigeria.

In contrast, Guinea could pick up only three points from their three matches. Their only win came against Gambia (1-0), arguably the tournament's weakest side.

The second reason is that Guinea's preparations for this game have been far from ideal. The media reported that the Guinea players went on strike on Thursday afternoon in a dispute over a bonus pay scheme.

In an attempt to force the Guinean Federation's hand, the players refused to train. They returned to training as normal on Friday morning, but the situation still hadn't been resolved with just two days to go ahead of kick-off.

The Guinea players clearly won't have been as focused on this game as they should have been. It's hard to justify their status as clear favourites given the tensions in their camp as this clash approaches.

Taking all factors into account, Equatorial Guinea are the selection. By supporting them 0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.111/10, you'll make a profit as long as they avoid defeat in 90 minutes.

Another way to support Equatorial Guinea would be to lay Guinea at 2.285/4. Backing Equatorial Guinea And Draw on the Double Chance market on the Sportsbook is essentially the same thing. At 4/61.67, this is our selection.

Back Equatorial Guinea And Draw @ 4/61.67

Bet now

Egypt vs DR Congo - Sunday, 20.00

It's difficult to justify Egypt's status as clear favourites on Monday night. The Pharaohs are 2.68/5 to win, with DR Congo 3.412/5 and the Draw 3.02/1 (all 90 minutes markets).

Egypt simply didn't do enough during the group stage to warrant their price. They drew all three of their games - vs Mozambique (2-2), Ghana (2-2) and Cape Verde (2-2) - and played well only in patches.

DR Congo drew all three of their group games as well, in their case vs Zambia (1-1), Morocco (1-1) and Tanzania (0-0). While not as clinical as they ought to have been in the final third given the attacking talent at their disposal, they were well-organised and extremely difficult to break down in all three games.

DR Congo have the talent and tactical rigour to make this a tough evening for Egypt. Supporting the underdogs would be the smart approach on this game.

By backing DR Congo with a 0 & +0.5 start on the Asian Handicap market at 1.910/11, you'll make a profit as long as DR Congo avoid defeat. As an alternative, an odds-against pick on the game would be DR Congo on the Draw No Bet market at 5/42.25. With this selection, you'll win if DR Congo win in 90 minutes and get your stakes back if the game ends in a draw.

In your Bet Builders, consider backing low goals. Teams that were open and positive during the group matches may play with greater caution now that the knockout phase has arrived. This ought to apply to Egypt.

Egypt's potentially more conservative approach, together with DR Congo's naturally solid defensive play, makes Under 2.5 Goals a smart inclusion on the multiples.

And why not try this Bet Builder?

Back DR Congo And Draw in the Double Chance market and DR Congo vs Egypt Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.9620/21

Bet now

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James' AFCON P/L

Staked: 26pts
Returned: +28.94pts
P/L: +2.94pts


Available to new and existing customers. Bet at least £10 (can be £10 win or £5 each-way) on the Euro 2024 Outright Winner market and get a free bet per every goal scored by your selection in the Group stage of the tournament. Opt in required. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.