West Indies v England
Friday 3 March 13.30
TV: live on Sky Sport
This is, once again, a reserve West Indies team with all the big guns missing. But there are still some solid performers available.
Jason Holder, the captain, is a capable chap in difficult circumstances considering that anyone who does show an aptitude for this level is, bizarrely, almost immediately treated with suspicion by the WICB.
For example, there is no Marlon Samuels or Darren Bravo. These two are their top runscorers against the Big Boys (plus Bangladesh) in the last two years. That puts Holder in pole position.
With the ball, Holder is also top dog with the same filter. But look out for Shannon Gabriel who has a good average and impressive strike rate of a wicket every 25 balls.
One man England will know all about is Carlos Brathwaite. His six-hitting exploits downed them in the World T20 final.
It wasn't so long ago that England's limited-overs players were about as popular as Donald Trump at a WI meeting. These days they are much in demand and the big guns are here to flex their muscles.
Ben Stokes, the most expensive cricketer ever, Joe Root, Jos Buttler, Eoin Morgan and Jason Roy ensure they bristle with batting power. We have doubts about their bowling, however.
This attack could be fodder considering it has no left-arm variety. West Indies will look to target Steven Finn, Liam Plunkett and new boy Tom Curran. Adil Rashid and Moeen Ali will be vital for control on sticky surfaces.
There have been 13 ODI matches at North Sound. All of them have been day matches, which is rather unfortunate considering this is under lights. Still, the scores in those games (most recent first) read: 303-159-269-249-225-300-380-247-235-174-104(22 overs)-177-322. That's an average of 242.
West Indies are [3.7] with England no better than [1.36]. It's not a competitive betting heat. Our first port of call is to decipher whether there is any value in the home price.
It's a tough task. And when it feels as though you are trying to force square pegs in round holes, it's a clue that it probably not a value wager.
What we do know is that England are poor in the field. Their bowlers regularly go round the park. Since April 2015 England have the second worst economy rate in ODI at 5.72 with Sri Lanka propping up the rest.
That means we would rather be on West Indies if they were to chase. For some time we have believed that England are capable of chasing anything.
That holds even if the wicket is slow and West Indies spinner Dev Bishoo gets some grip with his leggies. But if they bowl first and Bishoo helps to restrict England to under 270, they could be bang in the game.
Top West Indies runscorer
Evin Lewis looks like the value here. He has three appearances against established nations in the last 12 months and he has returned an average of 65 with 197 runs. Sportsbook make him a 7/2 chance. Kraigg Brathwaite is leaned on for runs but an average of 23 with the same filter means the 10/3 doesn't appeal. Holder is 13/1.
Top England runscorer
Root scored a century on this ground and Buttler 99 in 2014. They are 11/4 and 13/2 respectively. Jonny Bairstow has a shout at 13/2. He could well have displaced Sam Billings as opener after the latter failed twice in the warm-ups. Roy is 3/1.
First 15 overs
England are 4/6 to outscore West Indies in the first 15 overs. One thing we do know about this England side - and like - is that they blitz up front. In their last five they average 81.4 runs. West Indies are sluggish by comparison with an average of 65.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting