England v New Zealand Second Test Player Tips: Tongue has bowler market licked for hosts

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Wednesday 17 June, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports

Back Josh Tongue top England 1st inns bowler @ 21/103.10

Josh Tongue is likely to serve another reminder at The Oval as to why he is most likely to be England's standout bowler long-term.

His team-mates are falling by the wayside while Tongue dutifully goes about his business of taking wickets and the Betfair Sportsbook have made him the correct favourite at 21/103.10 to be top first-innings England bowler.

There's not much to beat after two market rivals miss out. Ollie Robinson has been ruled out of the Test with a sore knee while Gus Atkinson misses out with a sore head. Atkinson has been sanctioned for his role in breaking a team curfew.

Robinson's five-wicket haul at HQ won the market in the first Test but Tongue, who has two wins in eight, was always threatening because of his ability to roll a tail. He should be bang in the race until the last.

Tongue's ability to keep charging in stands him in good stead to be attack leader for a good few years. Although Robinson is highly-skilled, there have always been doubts about whether his body can take the strain. England ran out of patience with temperament and fitness issues. Could they be back to square one?

Jofra Archer is back in a much-changed England XI but he might not be a huge threat. He comes into the side with no red-ball tune-up. Archer could find it tricky to do the hard yards after his preparation consisted of the IPL and then a break.

In the first game we saw how Matt henry, New Zealand's premier pacer, wasn't quite right with a similar prep. While his team-mates benefited from a Test against Ireland, by day one Henry, who didn't play in that game, was suffering from a back spasm.

Back Matt Henry top New Zealand 1st inns bowler @ 12/53.40

Henry should better for the run. At some stage in this series he is going to do some damage with fitness and form in perfect unison. It would be remiss not to take the opportunity to bet him at The Oval.

He has an outstanding record on top Kiwi bowler in the first innings. Despite the blank at Lord's he has still won five of the last nine.

In the first dig Henry bowled only four overs but he came back in the second to send down 11, which suggests all is well. It would be a surprise if he was not getting close to strong shape.

Sportsbook make him the 12/53.40 favourite. That's not a surprise. Over a long study period Henry is their best bowler and his record bears scrutiny against the best in the world. He is comfortably the top bowler, from either side, on show.

Back Joe Root top England 1st inns bat @ 16/54.20

Predicting when the runs come at The Oval has been pretty straightforward in Test cricket in the last five years. As discussed in the full preview, there is split between the first- and second-innings and third and fourth in terms of pitch characteristics.

For the first two bowlers have dominated. Then the pitch has flattened out for the batters. That should infmor strategy for when betting player runs.
Specifically for England's top-bat market, we're keen on Joe Root. Root has 40 and 30 per cent win rates in the last two years on the first- and second-innings markets respectively.

However, we often talk about betting milestones on good wickets to take others out of the equation. Given that the pitch could well be flat for England's second knock, it may be smart to split the wager styles.

So Root is value to top score for England in the first with that healthy win rate, potentially recognising that it might not take a big score (or not even a 50), to win it. Sportsbook offer 16/54.20. In the second, Root bets for a 50 or a more straightforward innings runs buy (around the 36.5 mark), are the way to go.

For the Kiwis, Devon Conway is the only batter who is priced out of line with his hit rate. Conways returns at 21.5 at Sportsbook offer 9/25.50.

Top Eng 1^st inns bat 2-year win rates

Root 40%

Brook 25%

Smith 18%

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