England v New Zealand First Test Player Tips: Hoover up the Henry value

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Thursday 4 June, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports

Jamie Smith top England first-innings runscorer @ 7/18.00

Jamie Smith had the sort of Ashes series that can end a career. It wasn't so much the piddling return of 211 runs at 23.4. Or even the fact that his shot selection was so horrendous one wouldn't trust him to order off a menu for himself. His temperament, and stomach for the fight, was not there.

Perhaps only Harry Brook personified the flaws of Bazball more acutely. Talented players reckoning they needed didn't need to (or want to) do the hard graft to score runs in touch conditions against tough opponents.

Smith's retention, then, is a major show of faith. And not just that. He has been promoted. It is likely Smith will bat at No 6 with Ben Stokes slipping a place behind him.

That may bring a change in approach from Smith. Let's rephrase that. It has to bring a change in approach. Smith has been given extra responsibility. He has been trusted to be the middle-order glue, a role previously taken on by the captain.

Top England 1^st innings runscorer two-year win rates
Root 42%
Brook 21%
Smith 18.7%

With him being so obviously gifted, it may be time to back him to make the slot his own. Sportsbook offer 7/18.00 that he outscores his team-mates.

The first port of call is, of course, to check that it is value on win rate. Tick. Despite the troublesome Ashes, Smith now has a solid study sample behind him and that 18.7% hit rate gives us a massive edge in the context of the market. Sportsbook's odds imply he wins at 12.5%.

There is Joe Root to beat, which is no mean feat. Root has been exemplary in the last two years and has reversed his record in this market. But there is a good reason to reckon Smith is ideally positioned for the win.

Smith should be protected from an impressive new-ball onslaught from the Kiwis. And two of his team-mates ahead of him, Emilio Gay and Jacob Bethell, are under pressure. Gay debuts while Bethell is undercooked and coming back from injury. It would not be a surprise to see Smith launching a rescue missions at 60-something for four.

Ollie Robinson top England first-innings wicket-taker @ 16/54.20

England's other gamble is to go back to Ollie Robinson. Gamble may seem a harsh word because his record in Tests is anything but. He has 76 wickets at 22 which is elite. The problem with Robinson is fitness. He is as durable as wet toilet paper. There have also been question marks over his attitude.

The bet here is that he answers those questions with a roaring performance that his stats say he is more than capable of. If Robinson had been a mainstay instead of returning from the wilderness he would be the short-priced favourite in the market. That's because when he plays, he wins. His hit rate is a monstrous 30%. Sportsbook go 16/54.20.

Matt Henry top New Zealand first-innings wicket-taker @ 12/53.40

Matt Henry is one of the best fast bowlers in the world. Perhaps the best if your filter is strike rate in the last two years. No bowler takes wickets more regularly in that time frame.

Henry takes a wicket every 30.1 balls. That equates to 45 victims in his eight Tests. If New Zealand are going to match England in this series, then he must go well.

There is a good reason to reckon he will. He is well rested and conditions at Lord's should suit. On his last visit against England he took six in the match. He can nip the ball away from the England batters and if New Zealand bowl first under leaden skies it could be a rampage.

Sportsbook offer 12/53.40, making him jolly. That's no surprise. But is he short enough? In those eight Tests Henry has won the market five times. He is value to make it six.

For top New Zealand bat, there's not a huge drive to get involved. The most tempting bet is taking the 13/114.00 about Mitch Santner top scoring in the first dig. He has won two from six. But if we're thinking the Kiwis do damage with the ball on day one, England could be equally adept. Therefore there's value with Nathan Smith, a first-class ton to his name, eye-catching at 19s and Kyle Jamieson at 33s.

Top New Zealand 1^st innings runscorer two-year win rates

Williamson 33%
Santner 33%
Conway 23%
Latham 8.3%
Blundell 7.6%

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