England v New Zealand First Test Tips: Kiwis clear value for Lord's win

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Thursday 4 June, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports

England v New Zealand first Test team news

England normally go for a red-ball reset following an Ashes debacle Down Under. This time they have gone for a red-ball retain. The senior leadership team of Rob Key, Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes have all kept their jobs. Zak Crawley is the fall guy.

We may see a different approach, however. The aggressive batting tactics of the Bazball era look likely to be discarded considering it won them sweet nothing. Instead they have turned to Emilio Gay, who has had a prolific start to the county season and solid numbers for a while. He's an old-fashioned opener insofar as he's not going to try to hit every second ball for six.

Ollie Robinson is also back. The fast bowler has an exceptional Test career record but his ability has never been questioned. His durability and attitude have been considered the problems. Stokes is expected to bat at No 7 with Jamie Smith moving up to No 6. It's his watershed series. If he fails expect James Rew to take over. Jacob Bethell is fit after an injury scare although he has had no preparation with a poor IPL stint out of the way.

Josh Tongue has the opportunity to nail his role as the attack leader. The one question mark was over whether England went for the all-action spin option of Rehan Ahmed or Shoaib Bashir. Bashir gets the gig.

Possible XI: Gay, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Smith, Stokes, Atkinson, Robinson, Tongue, Bashir

New Zealand are a settled group and benefitted from a decent red-ball warm-up against Ireland. They may be considered to be in better shape than their hosts in terms of preparation. A late boost has also arrived in the form of Mitch Santner. Santner has recovered from a shoulder injury and could slot straight into the team.

There's a lot to like about the Kiwis. If this was still the Bazball era it could be argued they were everything England were not. They are efficient, durable and get the job done with few frills. The batting axis of Kane Williamson, Rachin Ravindra and Daryl Mitchell promises to cause plenty of issues.

With the ball Matt Henry has the best strike rate of any pacer in the last two years. Will O'Rourke's numbers are on a par with Kagiso Rabada. Nathan Smith's nagging seam may well give some of the England batter's Ashes flash backs. He is dangerous with the new ball and with the old don't be surprised if Tom Blundell stands up to the stumps.

Possible XI: Latham, Conway, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Santner, Smith, Foulkes, Henry, O'Rourke

England v New Zealand first Test pitch report

The weather forecast for Lord's on day one may entice the toss-winning captain to bowl first. Lord's Tests often begin in bowling-friendly conditions but in the last ten Tests there is no relevant toss bias. Teams have to make good use of conditions and in the study period they have. There have been these 'extremes' on first-innings runs: 212-121-172-165-132.

Batting does get easier, though and HQ has a track which is unlikely to significantly deteriorate. In terms of run rates from first- to fourth-innings in the study period there's only a 0.3 dip. Indeed, there is very little to choose between first and fourth in terms of batting averages.

Last 10 Lord's Test batting average by innings

1st - 26.3
2nd - 31.7
3rd - 24.9
4th - 26.3

An in-play strategy is clear, then, on innings runs. We would look to short the team batting first for cheap lays at that 240-260 bracket. And then it would be time to expect runs in the second innings, which is historically the best for batting.

England v New Zealand first Test match prediction

We are in cricket betting 1.01 territory for this Test match. It should be relatively easy to decipher who the value is and why. We'll give you a clue: it's not England at odds-on. Sportsbook, for example, rate the hosts at 8/111.73.

Despite the move away from Bazball, it doesn't justify the bet. We're betting the Kiwis not because we believe that they are a better team (although we could make a good case), we do so because we believe they are equally as good. To put it another way, we would find it hard to make a case to justify the gulf in odds.

Man for man these sides match-up well. For Joe Root, the Kiwis counter with Kane Williamson. For Harry Brook, there's the middle-order ballast of Ravindra and Mitchell while Smith as the keeper cannot be considered superior to Blundell.

The sides are evenly poised with the ball. It could be that Henry, the best bowler in either XI, gives the visitors the edge if his is fit and firing. Santner probably trumps Bashir in ability, most certainly in nous.

They key, though, is that this New Zealand team is entrenched in its work. They have methods and plans. This is evidenced by a record of just four defeats in their last 14 in two years. England don't appear to have as robust a method and they are now searching for a new one with 10 losses in 23.

England v New Zealand first Test in-play strategy

England are likely to be all the rage for a lay at 1.845/6 on the Exchange. But we will caveat with that in-play the Kiwis should be bowling first. As discussed, those overcast conditions and an a potent England attack would be a match for any team.

Conversely we do fear for the hosts with Henry charging in and getting swing and seam. It could be that a collapse is on the cards and that is something that has been, unfortunately, part of England's make-up. To that end, Gay has an enormous task if batting first on the first morning. He might be an option to short in-play as well for a quick win.

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