England v New Zealand Second Test Tips: Back Kiwis to exploit hosts' chaos

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Wednesday 17 June, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports

England v New Zealand second Test team news

If England thought they were getting stability post-Ashes chaos by retaining the senior leadership, they thought wrong. They are in full-blown crisis mode with Ben Stokes banned for breaking team curfew rules which he would have had a hand in writing. Gus Atkinson is also carpeted.

Instead of the focus being on what was a hard-won, impressive success in the first Test, England now look rudderless and confused. Joe Root is the new skip with Harry Brook, the vice-captain, overlooked. What that says about Brook's long-term leadership credentials is anyone's guess. It's not hard to fathom that it's not made him feel particularly good about himself.

To cap it all, Ollie Robinson has been ruled out. The returning hero at HQ, Robinson had banished doubts about his temperament. Only to break down immediately, a long-standing criticism.

Jofra Archer is available at least but Atkinson's spot goes to Matt Fisher alongside Matt Fisher. Jordan Cox comes in for Stokes so there are only four bowling options with Shoaib Bashir omitted. James rew has had a late call as Jamie Smith misses because of the birth of his child.

Possible XI: Duckett, Gay, Bethell, Root, Brook, Cox, Rew, Archer, Tongue, Fisher, Baker

New Zealand have not been immune from upset, although Kane Williamson's immediate retirement may not have come as a huge surprise to the camp. Williamson has cut a passive figure for some time now.

Williamson's spot could go to Will Young, who arrived in England on Sunday and was due to train on Monday. That's some ask to turnaround to potentially face a new ball in a Test match 48 hours later.

If the Kiwis see sense they will opt for Henry Nicholls who was named in the original squad. If they don't fancy him at No 3, Rachin Ravindra could move up a slot. The left-field choice would be Mitch Santner, packing the team with bowling all-rounders.

Probable XI: Conway, Latham, Ravindra, Nicholls, Mitchell, Phillips, Blundell, Smith, Jamieson, Henry, O'Rourke

England v New Zealand second Test pitch report

The batters have dominated this season in the County Championship at The Oval. In 14 innings there have been two scores of 600 or more, a 500 and two others busting 400. It rather puts in doubt the idea that this is a venue which can assist the seam and swing bowlers.

In Tests in the last five years (six), more than 350 has been breached only five times in all innings. It's been a terrific wicket for keeping both disciplines keen. Last August, India won a humdinger by six runs after early movement for the bowlers saw India rolled for 224 and England for 247. Batting then got easier.

With overcast conditions expected, there could be assistance again. The prevalence for runs in the third- and fourth-innings, however, is clear to see.

Innings by innings batting average last 5 years

First 26.8

Second 26.2

Third 31.9

Fourth 34.7

England v New Zealand second Test match prediction

England are 1.8910/11 for a win which would wrap the series. It's far from a good price given the turmoil that has engulfed them in the wake of the Lord's win.

It would not be at all surprising if they produced a stinker here. Root has an enormous job on his hands to blend a bewildered and increasingly inexperienced XI against a Kiwi side which is highly organised and fights hard. England, suddenly, are woefully short of senior pros. Gay, Bethell, Baker, Fisher, Cox and Rew have 9 Tests between them.

New Zealand are low on frills but they are so often bang in the game. And at odds-against they have to be considered. The 2.707/4 on the Betfair Exchange is a bet, not least because of the stability they can enjoy with each and every one of their players confident in their role.

They didn't get over the line at Lord's and may be sore at not realising quite how bad that wicket was. Batting last on it was a nightmare. They should be better for the run.

England v New Zealand second Test in-play strategy

Given the disparity between the first two innings and last two innings in terms of dominance between ball and bat respectively, the in-play strategy is clear.

Do not overreact to bowlers taking charge in the first two digs. By all means back the Kiwis pre-toss but, for those who want a strategy, we're looking at adding 25% to each of the two teams' original starting price in-play.

This could well be a third- and fourth-innings shootout. Just like the India game. Don't be afraid to take big prices on the team that bats first and gets rolled. Likewise don't be afraid of big prices for a fourth-innings chase.

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