England v South Africa Third ODI Betting: Can tourists avoid whitewash?

Billings could get a game at HQ
Billings could get a game at HQ

Ed Hawkins previews the final game of the series at Lord's on Monday and reflects on another spectacular South Africa choke in game two...

"The last whitewsash South Africa suffered was in Sri Lanka 13 years ago"


Recommended Bet
Trade South Africa from 2.111/10 to 1.51/2

England v South Africa
Monday 29 May, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports


England

With the series won it might be wise for England to try different combinations ahead of the Champions Trophy. They could kill two birds with one stone by keeping men fresh and giving much-needed game time to fringe players.

So Jonny Bairstow and Sam Billings could get the nod. Jason Roy, who has had a poor time, could be left out meaning Jos Buttler is promoted to open with Bairstow slotting in. Or Billings could be a straight swap.

It might be different with the ball. Jake Ball and Mark Wood were so tight at the death in Southampton that England might want to encourage the partnership. So David Willey may not get back in.


South Africa

This South Africa team came into the series as the No 1 side in the world. And they looked hot for a tilt at the Champions Trophy as they looked to banish their tag as nearly men.

But jeez, the defeat at Southampton has hammered their reputation. It was a choke. They batted well chasing 331 but with two men well set - David Miller and Chris Wood - and seeing the ball as if it were of the beach variety, there is no excuse for not getting seven off six.

Maybe we are being too harsh. Farhaan Behardien was the key. His innings - 17 from 25 - was criminal. It absolutely cost them the game and if he's going to bat like that he may as well go home.

South Africa might make changes, too. JP Duminy may come back and Imran Tahir as well. Morne Morkel looks certain to get a game with Kagiso Rabada probably worthy of a rest.


First-innings runs

Here are the last 12 first-innings scores at Lord (1/2 denotes game won by side batting first or second): 328-1/251-1/309-1/300-1/227-2/220-2/272-2/280-1/246-2/265-1/277-1/235-2. As you can see there is a trend - the side batting first is going to have to at least bust 280.


Match odds

This market has not settled yet. England are 2.01/1 and South Africa 1.9420/21. But the money available is peanuts so although the odds are hopelessly and unbelievably wrong, you will have to be very quick to grab the value on the hosts.

The question is: are South Africa bad enough to lose three-zip? And, indeed, suffer a whitewash. The last whitewash they suffered was in Sri Lanka 13 years ago. And they have failed to win a game in a two-team series only once since then, against England in 2008.

We would expect the odds to settle to what they were for games one and two. That means England around 1.84/5 and South Africa 2.111/10. Another trade on South Africa to short odds might be the best way to go.


Top England runscorer

Joe Root top scored with 89 last summer against Pakistan on this ground. He also notched 73, three behind honours-taking Eoin Morgan against Ireland earlier this summer. Morgan averages 74 at the ground with Root on 58.


Top South Africa runscorer

Quinron De Kock's 98 last time took South Africa to brink and it would have been welcome for the management to see that he can score in English conditions. The tourists need more from AB De Villiers and Faf Du Plessis. They have a 50 each but they haven't taken a game by the scruff of the neck and a good Lord's surface could be their opportunity.


Recommended Bet
Trade South Africa from 2.111/10 to 1.51/2

Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +5.41pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting

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