England v Scotland ODI Betting: Roy underrated for blitz

Jason Roy
Roy is worth a wager
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Ed Hawkins previews the contest from Edinburgh on Sunday and suggests the visitors will look for a big show from one of their openers...

"Roy should be around the same price as Bairstow considering the opportunities that come with opening – powerplay overs and the chance to bat for most time"

Scotland v England
Sunday 10 June 11.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Scots hope to be competitive

Scotland are still smarting from their failure to qualify for next year's World Cup in England. Set 131 from 35 overs against West Indies they had a golden opportunity. But a shocker of a leg-before decision seemingly robbed them of qualification.

No doubt they will be desperate to provide the heat England require from this warm-up ahead of their contest with Australia next week.

And there are a few Scots who are capable of doing the job. Pacer Safyaan Sharif was the man of the match in that defeat by the Windies, and he can get it down at a decent lick. Sharif takes a wicket ever 28.7 balls. Alasdair Evans is no mug either with a strike rate of 29.9. Their most potent bowler is medium pacer Chris Sole who has a strike rate of 26.3.

With the bat opener Preston Mommsen is averaging 57 over the last two years and he is Scotland's most successful rungetter. Kyle Coetzer, a former county stalwart, and Calum McLeod also boast good numbers - 46 and 48 respectively.

England weakened by injuries

England hope this contest will allow them to solve issues following injuries to key personnel. Chris Woakes and Ben Stokes are both out and they will also miss the early games against Australia.

Jake Ball, the Nottinghamshire pacer, is Woakes' replacement and Stokes's spot goes to Tom Curran. It is fair to say that England are more dangerous outfit if Woakes and Stokes were available.

There is good news, though. Eoin Morgan showed he was over a finger injury by hitting a century for Middlesex against Gloucestershire in the Royal London. Best of all is the form of Moeen Ali, who had suffered a terrible start to the summer.

Moeen hit a brilliant century in a tough chase for Worcestershire against Warwickshire and also took three wickets. Jos Buttler has been rested.

Visitors expect to go big

The last five first-innings scores at The Grange (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second) read: 169-2/317-1/266-1/153-nr/228-2. This doesn't suggest batting will be particularly easy but it's probably not worth getting too hung up about the wicket. England's batters as most established nations have done - have found batting far easier there than their hosts.

Little room for a trade

England are as short as [1.11] here. Understandable. Scotland are [8.8]. There is a possibility that cloud cover might mean the Scots could nip out a couple early but there's no guarantee so a trade is risky. There is nothing to hang your hat on here for an upset. In the last five head-to-heads four have resulted in cosy England wins. One was washed out.

Top Scots a tough call

Mommsen, Coetzer and McLeod should dominate the top Scotland runscorer markets. But only Coetzer does. He enjoys favourite status with Betfair Sportsbook at 3/1. On the numbers McLeod and Mommsen look decent pokes at 9/1 and 5/1. A word, too, for Richie Berrington at 11/2.

Betting on this market, though, is not without significant risk. The top three performers have good records but the vast majority of their runs have come against inferior Associate attacks. A Test nation is a different challenge.
Mommsen, Coetzer and McLeod all have poor records against Top Eight teams, averaging 17, 13 and 13.6 respectively in matches in the last five years. Berrington fares best with an average of 21.

If those figures put you off it may be best to consider a top Scotland bowler wager. Sharif is 11/4 to take most wickets and his efforts against West Indies are a comfort rug. Likewise Brad Wheal who also took three wickets. Wheal should bowl at the death. A nod for Chris Sole at 5/1.

Roy a boy at good odds

There will be much attention on England's big hitters up front. Jonny Bairstow and Jason Roy are expected to open the batting so it is not unreasonable to consider them value at 11/4 and a standout 7/2 respectively. Roy should be around the same price as Bairstow considering the opportunities that come with opening - powerplay overs and the chance to bat for most time.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2018: +13.62
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l

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