Ed Hawkins previews the contest from Lord's and pins his hopes on a former Middlesex player hanging around long enough for a price to cop...
"Joyce gets a 5/6 quote for 16.5 runs or more and that may not be a bad wager at all given his pedigree"
E Joyce 16.5 runs or more 5/6 Sportsbook (1pt)
England v Ireland
Sunday 7 May 11.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
England barely broke sweat in Bristol in recording a seven-wicket win. They must have surely been surprised at the lack of gumption or fight by an Ireland team with a chip on their collective shoulder.
The spin - both ways - of Adil Rashid was key. His five wickets killed the Irish challenge stone dead when they were reasonably well placed at 81 for two. That they could manage only 126 gives you an indication of how well they play spin.
With the bat England lost Jason Roy in the first over but there was no sniff of a collapse or upset. Alex Hales blazed away to a half-century with a strike rate of 141 while Joe Root did the finishing job.
Captain William Porterfield has urged his team-mates to "park" the Bristol performance and get fired up for Lord's. Let's hope he gets the desired response.
It was a surprise to see Ireland so listless. They have, for a number of years been vocal about their right to be recognised as a worthy opponent and have been infuriated by their best players, one of whom is now England captain, jumping ship.
But on a showing like the first ODI you can hardly blame them. At the top of the order Ed Joyce, another England player, looked in good touch, as did Paul Stirling. And these two are really going to have to pull off something special to reverse fortunes.
Here are the last 11 first-innings scores at Lord (1/2 denotes game won by side batting first or second): 251-2/309-1/300-1/227-2/220-2/272-2/280-1/246-2/265-1/277-1/235-2. As you can see there is a trend - the side batting first is going to have to at least bust 270. On a good batting wicket England should really be looking at more than 320 here if they get the chance to go first.
England are [1.08] and Ireland [12.0]. So the Irish have been pushed out a full four points since Bristol and that would seem fair enough. Yes, we could talk up the possibility of a trade but it is going to be hard for Ireland to make a dent in those odds.
Top England runscorer
Roy and Hales could be worth backing here with fears about Ireland succumbing to another low total if they were to bat first. That is a strategy from World Cup days of yore when the established nation openers would routinely dine out on minnow bowling. Both men are 11/4 with Sportsbook. Roy and Hales are 10/3 and 16/5 respectively to finish as the top match runscorer.
Top Ireland runscorer
This is Joyce's old home ground so he should feel confident. He is 4/1 for honours with Sportsbook with Stirling 9/2. Joyce gets a 5/6 quote for 16.5 runs or more and that may not be a bad wager at all given his pedigree. Kevin O'Brien, who is an extremely dangerous hitter as England know too well from their World Cup shock in Bengaluru, is 9/1 and arguably that is way too big in a weak market.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
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