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South Africa v Pakistan 2nd T20 Betting: Heavy toss bias in Centurion

Jamshed needs to prove himself

"We wouldn't be doing our job if we failed to advise a big-priced side, with more nous, in a toss game"


Pakistan at 2.3811/8

Ed Hawkins uncovers a worthy stat for game two, which starts in Centurion on Sunday. The weather forecast is pretty good for this one

South Africa v Pakistan
Start time: 12.30GMT
TT: live on Sky Sports

South Africa
South Africa come into this series in decent nick. They beat a durable and organised New Zealand 2-1 in their previous series and will be confident of back-to-back series wins. Those who read the preview for the washed-out first match will be aware that this is a youthful squad. There is no Hashim Amla, Jacques Kallis, Morne Morkel or Dale Steyn for example. The side is lead by Faf du Plessis with AB De Villiers standing down. He will keep wicket.


Pakistan
Pakistan have won three of the last five meetings between the sides. They have also won seven of their last 12 completed matches which is one of the best records around. There is no secret to Pakistan's success. They have paired spinner Saeed Ajmal's guile with Umar Gul's death bowling. With the bat they just hope one of the Akmal brothers, Shoiab Malik or Shahid Afridi come off. Wahab Riaz is also included and has been making encouraging noises about his desperation to do well: "Fast bowlers are always emotional and aggressive - they need time to settle. I still have a case to prove, and I believe this South Africa tour will be an ideal opportunity for me to showcase my abilities."


First-innings runs
There have been only two T20 internationals at Centurion. South Africa, batting first, won both of them posting 156 and 241 respectively. It is generally regarded as a fine batting wicket. In the 2011-12 domestic T20 series, however, there were not huge runs. The scores in completed matches which were not rain-affected were: 165-121-126-156-144. Of more note was the heavy toss bias. Each of those matches were won by the side chasing. That is a statistic which punters would be foolish to ignore.


Match odds
There has been a market move after the rain ruined proceedings in Durban. South Africa have drifted to 1.705/7 and Pakistan have shortened up to 2.3811/8. That is fair as Pakistan looked far too big approaching prices of 2.506/4 in the run-up to game one. We are yet to be convinced about a South Africa side full of young tyros and there is a strong temptation to go with Pakistan's experience. Granted, that experience comes with an unpredictably but we wouldn't be doing our job if we failed to advise a big-priced side, with more nous, in a toss game. However, if the 1.705/7 holds up about South Africa if they chase, then side with them. It's all dependant on whether you want the bet now or just before the off. It's a no brainer, really. The series odds are worth a mention, too, after the rain got bettors thinking about a draw. South AFrica are 1.768/11 with Pakistan 2.526/4. The stalemate is 9.809/1. The weather forecast is pretty good. Only a few showers are knocking around.


Top South Africa runscorer
When South Africa posted 241 against England in 2009 (the last match at the venue), Graeme Smith and Loots Bosman scored the runs. Neither man plays. And there has been a seismic change in the batting more recently. Of their top four runscorers in the last 12 months, South Africa are without three of them. Du Plessis is No 1 with 192 but JP Duminy, Kallis and Amla are absent. Look out for Henry Davids. At 33, he seems an odd choice but he whacked 143 runs at 47 in three matches against New Zealand. He will go off at around4.507/2.


Top Pakistan runscorer
We said it before game one, and we must say it again. There have been few headline-grabbing efforts from the Pakistani willowmen in the last 12 months. Mohammad Hafeez, Nasir Jamshed, the Akmal brothers, Shoaib Malik and Shahid Afridi all average less than 29. Hafeez is the top runscorer over that time with 375 runs in 13 matches followed by Jamshed with 263. Jamshed is the coming man in this side but it remains to be seen whether he has the technique to cope on pitches which do a bit more.


Recommended bet
Pakistan at 2.3811/8

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02 March 2013

Twenty20

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