T20 Cricket World Cup Semi-final Tips New Zealand v South Africa: Saffers solid in a chase

• South Africa favourites for final berth
• Eden Gardens has strong chase bias at night
• In-play betting strategy is clear
• De Kock and Seifert double up at 12/113.00
• Henry a doubt for Kiwis, would be a big miss
• For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

Click here New Zealand v South Africa odds...
Wednesday 4 March, 09.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

New Zealand v South Africa T20WC team news

New Zealand  await the return of key pacer Matt Henry. Henry has been allowed home on paternity leave. There is no guarantee that he will be back in time for the clash.

If not, Jacob Duffy would be the automatic replacement. But he could play anyway dependant on how the Kiwis think the pitch will behave. If Henry is available, Ish Sodhi could make way with New Zealand hitting South Africa with a trio of pacers in Henry, Duffy and Lockie Ferguson.

Cole McConchie has settled into his role as replacement for spin all-rounder Micharel Bracewell. It is vital for the Kiwis that he contributes in that slot. 

Possible NZ XI: Seifert, Allen, Ravindra, Chapman, Phillips, Mitchell, Santner, McConchie, Herny, Ferguson, Duffy

South Africa shuffled their pack for the win over Zimbabwe, bringing in George Linde, Kwena Maphaka and Anrich Nortje for Keshav Maharaj, Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen. The latter trio should all be back for the big one.

It's slightly surprising that they risked momentum for resting those three. Workload is not exactly heavy and the schedule far from punishing. It is possible that Linde's all-round display means he puts Maharaj under pressure.

Probable SA XI: Markram, De Kock, Rickleton, Brevis, Miller, Stubbs, Jansen, Bosch, Maharaj/Linde, Rabada, Ngidi

New Zealand v South Africa T20WC pitch report

Eden Gardens is the venue and both teams should be aware how important the toss is under lights in Kolkata. Eight of the 11 T20i night matches have been won by the chaser. The runs per over in that study is 7.9, which seems low considering how good the surface looked in West Indies-India. The hosts, of course, chased 195 with relative ease and it would not be a surprise if we saw something similar, particularly if South Africa were to bat second.

New Zealand have a slightly higher average total runs score at 186 to South Africa's 176 but the Saffers are mugh tighter with the ball. The South Africa totla runs line at 182.5 may be a punchy unders given the stats. 

New Zealand v South Africa T20WC match prediction

At this point, South Africa look the best team in the tournament. They have a 100% record and have bossed India and the Kiwis in earlier rounds. Indeed, New Zealand threw some punches through likely candidates Mark Chapman and Finn Allen in that meeting but were ultimately outskilled.

The Saffers are 1.645/8 on the Betfair Exchange, which is about what one would expect in a match-up if all was level. But it might not be that level. As mentioned, the toss bias is a problem for both teams.

That's not to suggest that South Africa cannot win defending but the task is harder. Do not also expect them to drift. They could well be even shorter by the break. 

The previous clash could be instructive. New Zealand did okay to get up to 175. They would certainly take a chunk out of their own price if they were to improve on that by 15-20 as a target. 

An in-play strategy is to rely on the toss bias with South Africa chasing and look to book in prices on South Africa in that first dig from upwards of 1.804/5. 

Otherwise, a Sportsbook play could focus on South Africa hitting power, which is superior to the Kiwis. They are 11/82.38 to win the match and hit the most sixes. 

New Zealand v South Africa player tips

Tim Seifert and Quinton de Kock are both in the win zone for top bats so the opportunity to bet the pair in a double with Sportsbook should be snaffled. The 12/113.00 on offer has appeal. Seifert is one of the most reliable in the world on this market and should prefer the flatter surfaces of Kolkata for his swashbuckling style. He has a win rate of 37.5%. 

De Kock has been in excellent touch and, at times, it has all looked a little too easy for him. Now is the time for him to deliver a big innings with the pressure on. His win rate has dipped to 23.5% but without a notch in this tourny he surely has get off the mark soon. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to the T20 World Cup