New Zealand v South Africa Fourth T20 Tips: Keep faith that Saffers find form

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Sunday 22 March, 06.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

New Zealand v South Africa team news

New Zealand will be skippered by Tom Latham for the final two matches of the series with Mitchell Santner stepping away. Devon Conway is also rested.

That means there is a slot at the top of the order free while Santner's all-rounder role is available. Tim Robinson should be in pole position to open the batting but keeper-batter Dane Cleaver has also now been included.

Cole McConchie has been involved anyway as the spin all-rounder so it is possible specialist spinner Jayden Lennox gets a game. Lockie Ferguson is rested also.

Possible NZ XI: Robinson, Latham, Kelly, Jacobs, Neesham, Cleaver, McConchie, Clarkson, Jamieson, Sears, Lennox

South Africa may start to shuffle their pack after two horrible batting efforts consecutively to surrender a 1-0 lead. Wiaan Mulder may not be afforded the opportunity to open again. Tony de Zoezi has also had a poor series.

Rubin Hermann could be in contention to move up the order. His brother Jordan is no longer in the squad. Andile Simelane and Pren Subrayen, all-rounders both, may also come into consideration.

Probable SA XI:  R Hermann, Esterhurizen,  De Zorzi, Mulder, Forrester, Smith, Linde, Coetzee, Maharaj, Baartman, Mokoena

New Zealand v South Africa pitch report

There have been 12 night matches at Wellington's Sky Stadium but there is no toss trend. The average runs per over in that period is 8.5 but there is a drop in rate from 8.7 to 8.4 batting first to second.

Cool temperatures are expected and it is reasonable to reckon that the big chance for big runs has gone after the letdown of Eden Park. Indeed, there have been some low scores in our study period. Pakistan posted just 128 last March, Australia 156 and the Kiwis rolled for 105 in reply four years before that. More than 165.5 in first dig is an even-money return in those 12 games.

The highest total match runs quote is with New Zealand at 166.5 and that may be worth shorting at 5/61.84. 

New Zealand v South Africa match prediction

New Zealand's batting has flopped once, South Africa's twice. In a series which has hardly set the pulse racing due to the timing immediately after the T20 World Cup, all-out totals of 91 and 107 and South Africa's posting of 136 in Auckland have added to the feel that no one can really be bothered.

The hope for gamblers is that South Africa can engender some interest. Man for man we absolutely maintain there is no way they should be finding this contest a struggle. They more than match their Kiwi counterparts.

On the Betfair Exchange match odds there are hints some are starting to agree. The 1.635/8 about the Kiwis is a drift. We will keep faith with South Africa at 2.57157/100 as the belief is that this is much closer to a choice affair.

New Zealand v South Africa player tips

If we're wrong about South Africa finding some form, it would be remiss not to have pointed out some big prices on lower-order top bat wins. Ngobani Mokoena won at No 10 last time. So Keshav Maharaj, who is a fair batter, is under consideration at 70/171.00. Likewise Gerald Coetzee at 35s and Subrayen at 40s. Keep stakes small but 30-odd could win this if bowlers are to the fore. .

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