T20 World Cup Tips England v New Zealand: Back Kiwis to top the group

• Winner will top Super 8 Group 2
• RPS surface increasingly taking spin
• England have been unconvincing
• Used pitch will help New Zealand
• Archer and Nawaz can deliver
• For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

England v New Zealand
Friday 27 February, 09.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v New Zealand T20WC team news

England have qualified for the semi-final seemingly without breaking sweat. But they are yet to produce a convincing performance in six attempts. That may have a lot to do with the form of Jos Buttler, who sets the tone up front with the bat.

Buttler is on a horror run and there has been signs of decline for some time now. T20 is no format to play yourself back into touch and there is a sense that he has no answers. One solution is to take the pressure off him by demoting him to No 3 and asking Tom Banton to open. Another option is to open with Ben Duckett and drop Buttler or the disappointing Jacob Bethell. Or just do nothing which is Brendon McCullum's MO.

Probable England XI: Salt, Buttler, Bethell, Banton, Brook, S Curran, Jacks, Overton, Dawson, Archer, Rashid

New Zealand roared back to beat Sri Lanka at the RPS on Wednesday. At 84 for six they were in a world of trouble before Mitch Santner and Cole McConchie launched a rescue mission to get them up to 168.

That proved more than enough as Sri Lana collapsed, losing six wickets to spin. Four of those were to part-timer Rachin Ravindra. It was notable how New Zealand bowled 17 overs of spin as the brought in Ish Sodho to replace Jacob Duffy.

Probable New Zealand XI: Seifert, Allen, Ravindra, Chapman, Phillips, Mitchell, Santner, McConchie, Sodhi, Ferguson, Henry

England v New Zealand T20WC pitch report

These two meet at the RPS and there are now signs that runscoring is getting increasingly tough. New Zealand's 168 looked a very good score while Sri Lanka became the third team in four matches to make heavy weather of batting in a chase. One could make the case for Ireland struggling twice as well but we have to factor in Associate status against the home team and Australia respectively.

With the spin bowler expected to dominate an attritional contest is in the offing. We await Sportsbook total match runs quotes but anything in the low 160s on the Exchange in first-innings is a short. Likewise England if they get up to that 167.5 mark. 

England v New Zealand T20WC match prediction

England will argue that they have been unable to fire as a batting unit because they have played matches on slow and nagging surfaces which bring bowling variety into play. And that is probably true. They are doing just enough to get the win at present.

But there are hints of issues. Pakistan gave them nervous moments in the chase last time out when the game looked over. Sri Lanka caused significant issues and they were probably 20 runs short. New Zealand may not be as forgiving.

On a wicket which is conducive to spin the fact that New Zealand have more options in that area could be decisive. England can't really match their expertise. Will Jacks is now a frontline spinner and is among the wickets but his economy rate is not good. 

The 2.206/5 that New Zealand take the points and top the group makes sense. They just about have the edge with the ball while their openers, unlike England, are hitting it well. The Kiwis are not mathematical certainties to qualify but it would take a major net run run rate swing to deny them with a defeat here. 

England v New Zealand T20WC player tips

Tim Seifert is in the win zone for top Kiwi bat at 3/14.00. It could be an advantage (more than usual) in opening here. Those at the top should get best use of the wicket when it is at its flattest either in the first-innings or after the roller. Buttler's runs are available to short at 22.5 at 5/61.84. That looks a fair bet. He is struggling badly and it won't help that he comes up against Matt Henry, one of the most dangerous new-ball bowlers in the world. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to the T20 World Cup