Australia v Bangladesh First Test Tips: Starc to lead assault on limited tourists

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Thursday 13 August, 01:30
TV: Sky Sports

Australia v Bangladesh first Test team news

Australia are at full-strength for this one. Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon and Josh Hazlewood all return. And England thought they had it bad in the Ashes. Imagine the pummelling the Poms would have taken had the Big Four been available throughout. That trio, of course, join Mitchell Starc.

It means that Scott Boland, who has four wins from nine on top bowler in the last two years, is on the bench. There are interesting sub-plots to an expected dominant Aussie story. There is pressure on Cameron Green to start producing. At 27 it is now or never and he couldn't have wished for a better opponent.

Jake Weatherald also knows that runs are required to prolong his Test career. He has gone away to work on technique after he was exposed as a leg-before candidate in the Ashes.

Probable XI: Head, Weatherald, Labuschagne, Smith, Carey, Green, Webster, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood

Bangladesh have injury worries about some key players. That is the worst-case scenario going into a Test in Australia. All have to be fit and firing. There is no room for passengers.

Keeper-batter Liton Das and Taijul Islam, the strong spin-bowling all-rounder, may not be 100 per cent fit.

Mominul Haque has been their most reliable batter but he faces a tough challenge at No 3. It could well be that late runs are the best Bangladesh can hope for. In that regard Mehidy Hasan Miraz and Taijul may need to launch a rescue mission. Hasam Mahmud is a solid pick to do damage of his own with the new ball.

Possible XI: Tanzid, Shadman, Haque, Shanto, Das, Mushfiqur, Hasan Miraz, Taijul, Taskin, Hasan, Ebadot

Australia v Bangladesh first Test pitch report 

There has never been a Test match played in Darwin. And the first-class form guide is, at best, patchy. Australia A drew with Sri Lanka A in a contest there in 2025. It did look pretty flat for batting. But there hadn't been a game there for 20-odd years. We at least have Bangladesh's warm-up against a Cricket Australia XI as a guide from last week. But that probably says more about Bangladesh than the surface. They were rolled for 54 in their second innings.

It is a drop-in pitch regardless so form is probably irrelevant. The groundsman hopes for a pitch that will be "nice and consistent with runs in it, and bowlers can work hard and get something out of it". Cummins has said it "looks and feels hard".

The temptation will be to get long of Australia runs. But it shouldn't be forgotten that this is an Aussie bating line-up which has consistently struggled, even against England last winter. A cuter strategy may be required to just blindly go big before a ball is bowled. We know the Kookaburra ball goes soft after 20 overs or so and run-making gets very easy. That is the time to get with the Aussies just to make absolutely sure. A couple of wickets before that point would be ideal.

Australia v Bangladesh first Test match predictions

This is a mismatch and the odds reflect that. Betfair Sportsbook offer Australia at 1/251.04 with the draw and Bangladesh both at 22/123.00. It is very hard to even make a case for a trade of Bangladesh because they may never even get a foothold in the game. The gulf in ability is huge.

That has a lot to do with this being the first Test Bangladesh have played in Australia for 23 years. There is no other sport in the world where the haves consistently ensure the have nots don't get a chance to raise their standards. It is a disgrace that Test powerhouses like Australia don't afford more opportunities for smaller nations.

In terms of match outcomes we note the Exchange have a market for Test match end. But whether any money comes available to back 'no' on the game lasting until day four remains to be seen. Australia should win by an innings and plenty.

Australia v Bangladesh first Test player tips

The player markets are the best source of value. The first port of call is backing Mitchell Starc to be top Australia first-innings runscorer. Bangladesh were destroyed by left-arm pace in that second innings in Darwin with southpaw Campbell Thompson taking eight for 25. Starc is not a wrong price in terms of how often he wins with Betfair Sportsbook going 12/53.40. But the hit rate of 25% for Starc in the last two years isn't far off.

Milestone betting is the way to go for Aussie batters. Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith represent fair value at 7/24.50 and 5/23.50 respectively for first-innings tons. Their stubborn approach and joy of batting are ones to keep onside.

For the visitors, Mehidy at 10/111.00 and Taijul at 33s for top Bangladesh first-innings runscorer may well be worth a punt with 30 or 40 possibly winning this.

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