South Africa v Australia First Test Tips: Back top bat bets at 5/1 and 17/2

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Friday 9 October, 08.30
TV: Sky Sports

South Africa v Australia first Test team news

South Africa are sweating on the fitness of premier strike bowler Kagiso Rabada who's been out with a hamstring injury and has not bowled a ball since May.

The rumour mill suggests he misses out. During pre-game nets, Rabada has worked away from the main group with Marco Jansen, Anrich Nortje and Corbin Bosch doing most of the bowling. Rabada bowled off two paces and then off nine. This strongly suggests the game comes too early for him.

The fact that the aforementioned trio bowled as a group suggests South Africa may be planning on pairing spin pair Keshav Maharaj and Simon Harmer. It would mean that Dane Paterson, the veteran pacer, would also miss out.

With the bat, Tony de Zorzi has been ruled out with a hamstring injury so middle-order lynchpin David Bedingham could come in.

Possible XI: Markram, Rickleton, Stubbs, Bavuma, Bedingham, Verreynne, Jansen, Boch, Maharaj, Harmer, Nortje

Australia are not at full strength with an injury to Cameron Green meaning they will have to shuffle the pack. Michael Neser appears to be in pole position. The bowling all-rounder has been at the key gully position in fielding drills.

There is an alternative theory. Neser might be readying for a game in place of Nathan Lyon, the spinner. Australia are not averse to going with an all-seam attack if they feel the pitch is not conducive.

That would see Green's spot go to either Nic Maddinson or Cooper Connolly. Connolly's part-time spin may get him the nod ahead of Maddinson, who is a surprise pick to make a debut at the age of 34.

Marnus Labuschagne, on a poor run, looks likely to continue at No 3. The big three with the ball are all back with Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood giving Australia a clear edge in the pace department.

Possible XI: Head, Renshaw, Labuschagne, Smith, Carey, Maddinson/Connolly, Webster, Cummins, Starc, Neser, Hazlewood

South Africa v Australia first Test pitch report 

There hasn't been much Test cricket played in Durban in the last five years. Two tests haven't yielded a large array of pointers for punters. Both games came against sub-continental opposition in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, who found conditions alien. They were razed for 53 and 42 all out respectively. Jansen took seven-for in the first dig in the latter.

In the most recent domestic season there have been plenty of runs in three games; a 600, couple of 400s, two 380s and a 370 across all innings.

Still, the focus may be on taking on Australia with the bat. They have struggled, even in the Ashes when the team was dominant. In the last two years Australia have gone under 225 in first innings no fewer than nine times.

The opportunity to lay Australia with a comfort cushion of 20 to 30 runs added on to that guide number on the Exchange is clear at odds-on.

South Africa v Australia first Test match prediction 

The Exchange makes this a pick 'em affair with South Africa 2.1411/10 and Australia 2.166/5. Home advantage and the wielding of the World Test Championship mace obviously makes the Saffers have some appeal. They are a durable, well-organised outfit who don't have that fear against the Aussies like their predecessors.

If we knew here and now that Rabada was fit and firing, then that would be the bet. But we don't and there are strong suspicions that South Africa will take the wise option and make sure he is right for game two.

That surely opens up Australia as the value if you subscribe to the view that Test cricket is all about taking 20 wickets. The Cummins-Starc-Hazlewood axis will go down as one of the greats. With the best will in the world Bosch-Jansen-Nortje will not.

So it's a pretty straightforward bet on Australia to dig in and be their usual competitive selves. They never know when they're beaten.

South Africa v Australia first Test player tips 

Two wicketkeepers appears to be the standout bets for the top runscorer markets in the first innings. Kyle Verreynne fits the bits for South Africa at 17/29.50.

He has two wins in the last two years (14 matches) and has a good record against the Aussies. A late-order rescue job could be the order of the day with that Aussie attack dangerous with the new ball in humid conditions.

Alex Carey is similarly underrated for Australia. He has as many wins (four) on the market as Travis Head in the two-year study sample (18 Tests). There's a 5.5 point swing in our favour in terms of Betfair Sportsbook's implied probability versus win rate.

Finally, Starc is the bet for top Australia bowler in the first dig. He has six wins in 18 meaning he is dominant. Sportsbook offer 23/103.30.

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