T20 Cricket World Cup Zimbabwe v West Indies Tips: Zims bang in the hunt

• West Indies could be vulnerable to upset
• Wankhede surface full of runs if fresh
• Evans, Shepherd and Powell value
• Zimbabwe runs underrated
• For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

Zimbabwe v West Indies
Monday 23 February, 13.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Zimbabwe v West Indies T20WC team news

Zimbabwe have a 100% record after comfortably beating Sri Lanka to win the group. They look a well-balanced unit if not a little too reliable on Brian Bennett with the bat in the opening slot.

Their real strength is with the pace department. Blessing Muzarabani, Brad Evans and Richard Ngarava are as good as anything in this tournament. Graeme Cremer has replaced Ngarava on spinning wickets and took two wickets against Sri Lanka.

Ryan Burl and Dion Myers are interchangeable in the top four. Sikandar Raza has not been required to produce all-round efforts on his own yet. 

Possible Zimbabwe XI:  Bennett, Marumani, Burl, Raza, Musekiwa, Munyonga, Myers, Evans, Masakadza, Cremer, Muzarabani

West Indies also have a 100% record. Alongside Zims they have been the most impressive team of all and had no truck with any opponent in the first group phase. Despatching England was one of the standout performances.

Shai Hope has found form at the top of the order. Brandon King less so. Shimron Hetmyer has been outstanding. They are yet to record middle-order blasting from Rovman Powell.

In Shamar Joseph, Romaripo Shepherd and Jason Holder with pace and Akeal Hosein and Gudakesh Motie with spin, they have an all-round bowling attack. Shepherd has missed the last two games though with a niggle. if he's not fit Matthew Forde plays instead.

Possible WI XI: King, Hope, Hetmyer, Chase, Rutherford, Powell, Holder, Shepherd/Forde, Akeal, Motie, S Joseph

Zimbabwe v West Indies T20WC pitch report

There have been only four night matches at the Wankhede in the last three years in T20i. The average run rate is nine. It looked good for batting when West Indies made 196 to beat England but sluggish on a used surface for Scotland's defeat by Nepal. The Scots batters struggled for timing. Late dew potentially brought it back to life. 

In all T20 matches, including IPL, in the same study period the runs per over is 9.3. There is no toss bias. So long as we can be sure that this is not a used surface, we should get runs. Zimbabwe's cheap total match runs at 158.5 overs might be a play. 

Zimbabwe v West Indies match prediction

Zimbabwe are 3.1511/5 outsiders with West Indies 1.454/9. Considering the latter as an option is not a study in value. West Indies have a stinker in them and they are not to be relied upon at such prohibitive odds. Sure they have been good but this is a competitive game and much tighter than the odds suggest.

The strategy, or route to profit, is pretty simple. We're looking for Zimbabwe to get to favourite status by relying on a fresh Wankhede pitch and batting first. They are two big caveats but crucial ones to get involved.

From a starting price of 3.1511/5 adding 50% to your original stakes from the back button when you lay at 1.834/5 gives an all-green book. If taking the Zimbabwe runs bet you probably don't need to also play match odds as it's a bit of overexposure.

Zimbabwe v West Indies T20WC player tips

There are three players to follow on the top markets which all rate value in terms of prices being out of line with how often they win. Two are bowlers and one a batter. Brad Evans at 7/24.50 and Shepherd at 9/25.50 are underrated for most wickets for their team. Powell is closer to a 4s chance instead of 10/111.00 for top WI bat. Evans, considering he is guaranteed to bowl at the death, is the standout. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to the T20 World Cup