New Zealand v South Africa Third T20 Tips: Back a 14/1 run-fest

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Thursday 17 March, 06.15
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New Zealand v South Africa team news

New Zealand levelled the series in game two. This will be the last match of the contest, however, for their captain Mitch Santner who will be replaced by Tom Latham in the leadership role for the last two matches.

We expect an unchanged XI although Josh Clarkson could be promoted up the batting order after his game-changing death hitting. Clarkson struck 26 from nine to rescue the Kiwis from the doldrums and ensure they posted 175. It knocked the stuffing out of South Africa who promptly collapsed with the bat.

Probable NZ XI: Conway, Latham, Robinson, Kelly, Santner, Neesham, McConchie, Clarkson, Jamieson, Sears, Ferguson

South Africa  brought in Wiaan Mulder to open the batting with Connor Esterhuizen, moving Tony de Zoezi down to No 3. With Rubin Hermann and Jason Smith following it was a strong top order which badly underperformed.

Lockie Ferguson's three wickets ripped the heart out of any recovery although at 89 for six the game looked up. With the experience and talent in the line-up South Africa should have been far more competitive.

Probable SA XI:  Mulder, Esterhurizen,  De Zorzi, R Hermann, Forrester, Smith, Linde, Coetzee, Maharaj, Baartman, Mokoena

New Zealand v South Africa pitch report

In night matches at Eden Park in T20i there is no toss bias with a fifty-fifty split over 16 results. The run rate in first- and second-innings is 9.4 and 9.2 respectively. It is normal to expect runs on this ground. Indeed, both teams to score 200 has copped in four of those games.

In the last game in these conditions played at the venue, New Zealand posted 207 and West Indies got within three runs. The Betfair Sportsbook will give you 14/115.00 on both teams breaking the 200 barrier in this contest. It's certainly worth an interest even if the series so far has been characterised by two woeful batting efforts by each team.

There is still belief that South Africa's line-up is the more explosive. A consequence of their collapse in game two is a cheap total match runs quote. They are 5/61.84 for over 163.5. However, taking the better odds of 10/111.91 for both making 160 or more might mke more sense. No ran is forecast at the moment. 

New Zealand v South Africa match prediction

New Zealand are in the ascendancy after razing South Africa for just 107. But in game one it was South Africa who were in charge, knocking over the hosts for 91. It does appear, then, that these sides are as good, or bad, as each other. Perhaps it should not be surprising both are struggling for rhythm considering they are reserve outfits.

Still, we're not sure how Kiwi favouritism can be justified. Indeed, the 1.584/7 on the Betfair Exchange about a home win remains prohibitively short. As stated before game two there is precius little evidence (if any) that New Zealand are a team classy enough to be rated as short. That price really is the realms of a crack unit coming up against a no hoper.

It is time for some of these South Africans to step up. Mulder, Rubin Hermann, Smith, Linde, Coetzee, Keshav Maharaj and Ottneil Baartman are all excellent performers in this format and are not out of place at the elite level at all. 

On a flat track, an Exchange trade on South Africa - if batting first - is reasonable for those who don't want to be on the wrong side if the coin toss goes in favour of the hosts. 

New Zealand v South Africa player tips

On good batting wickets the top team runscorer market can be fraught with danger. A decent individual score can be usurped. So instead look at individual players to score a 50. It remains sensible to focus on those batting at the top of the order, ideally an opener who can beenfit from the powerplay. The best pick may be Mulder at 9/25.50. He really should be staking a claim for a regular place at this level and this is a golden opportunity.

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