New Zealand v South Africa first T20 tips: Kiwis poor favourites in reserves clash

• Reserve teams do battle at Mount Manganui
• Good batting surface expected
• South Africa match up well against hosts
• Don't miss Ed's trading strategy
• Robinson and Vaartman solid follows
• For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

Click here New Zealand v South Africa odds...
Sunday 15 March, 09.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

New Zealand v South Africa  team news

New Zealand were crushed in the final of the T20 World Cup by the India juggernaut. But one still has to question the smarts of skip Mitchell Santner who stuck in a powerful batting unit on a flat one and, then, after a solid start from Matt henry and Glenn Phillips, took them off after one over each. It was bizarrely stupid and should not have gone unnoticed like it did.

Unfortunately Santner is not rested for this one. He is one of only two who played in the final who could play in this game. Jimmy Neesham is the other. Only Devon Conway, Cole McConchie and Ish Sodhi were in the squad. 

The entire top six from the World Cup is rested. And they are a batter short in terms of this squad. Nick Kelly should debut at No 3 with a domestic strike rate of 128.

Possible NZ XI: Conway, Robinson, Kelly, Jacobs, Clarkson, Neesham, Santner, McConchie, Jamieson/Smith, Sears, Sodhi

South Africa have arrived with only two World Cup players on show. Keshav Maharaj has drawn the short straw and will be asked to lead and George Linde should join in the middle order. 

The selection looks a little unbalanced. The Hermann brothers and Connor Esterhuizen are all No 3s. Tony de Zorzi could bat there, too. Jason Smith is a hitter in the middle of the pack. Dian Forrester, who can give it a whack, could debut. With the ball they look strong with potent wicket taker Ottniel Baartman leading the group. Gerald Coetzee should return

Possible SA XI: De Zorzi, J Hermann, R Hermann, Esterhurizen, Smith, Forrester, Linde, Coetzee, Subrayen, Maharaj, Baartman

New Zealand v South Africa pitch report

There have been 18 T20 night matches at Mount Manganui. Ten have been won by the team batting first. There is an 8.8 runs per over average in the first innings and one of eight in the second. 

In four T20i at night last year, there were signs it was a decent batting surface. New Zealand amassed 220 against Pakistan and 181 against Australia. They won the former but lost the latter. A washout followed against the Aussies before the third game of the series was more turgid (possibly a used surface) with the visitors chasing 157. At the moment no rain is forecast. The Sportsbook over/under sixes line is 13.5. Playing overs has won in six of the nine T20i but the 8/111.73 is a little skinny. 

New Zealand v South Africa  match prediction

New Zealand are 1.584/7 with South Africa 2.707/4. That's a big gulf between two reserve teams and it is hard to see how that can be justified.

It's not a must-play by any means because the formbook for this series is completely irrelevant but South Africa have talented individuals who are more than capable of matching the Kiwis here.

If they were to bat first they could well be favourites by the break. That hint of a toss bias could then come to their assistance. At the very least they should be capable of flipping the odds.

A trade strategy, with the South Africans given the chance to set a target, is the best option. Back at 2.707/4 and then place an order to lay at 1.705/7 for 50% extra on top of the original stake for profit both sides. 

New Zealand v South Africa player tips

Tim Robinson has been the forgotten man in terms of Kiwi blasters up top but he has a very respectable record at this level and the 10/34.33 for top bat holds an interest. It is out of kilter on win rate . Baartman is 3/14.00 favourite for top SA bowler. In franchise cricket his win rate would suggest that was generous. This is supposed to be a step up but the reality is with both teams picking second strings he should be well in the mix. 

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