England v Pakistan first Test player Tips: Bets at 33s and 16s as batters struggle

Click here for England v Pakistan odds
Wednesday 19 August, 11.00
TV: Sky Sports

Back Jamie Smith top England first-innings bat @ 7/18.00

They say it's grim up north but the poor weather forecast for the contest from Leeds could put a smile on your face. Prepare for a bowler-friendly contest, opening up the potential for big-priced top-bats wins.

The golden rule when betting at Headingley is to look up, not down. That's because the overheads more often than not dictate what is going to happen. If the sun is shining and the skies are clear, bowlers struggle to extract seam and swing. But if there is rain and conditions are overcast, batters find it hard going.

It is why there are such contrasting totals put down. For example, England India traded shot for shot last summer in a runfest with the hosts getting up with ease in a massive fourth-innings chase. In the previous Test, an Ashes contest, the highest match score was 263. England have been rolled for 67 in 2019, India for 78 in 2021.

We are betting on the weather, of course, but persistent rain and cloud suggests this is not going to be a road, despite what we saw in The Hundred.

The first wager to consider is Jamie Smith for top England bat. Smith has been frustratingly hard to get right on this market but he still retains a strong win rate at 18.7%. With the possibility that England's top order faces a stern examination, Sportsbook's 7/18.00 has obvious appeal.

Back Aamer Jamal top Pakistan first-innings bat @ 16/117.00

The top Pakistan runscorer market for the first-innings is where we consider chunkier numbers. It would not be in the least surprising for Pakistan to lose the toss, get stuck in and be in all kinds of trouble.

For all of England's problems over the last two years or so, they still boast a pace attack which is mean enough to be horrible to play against for a sub-continental side in damp and grey conditions. It could be a nightmare for Pakistan. There is a real chance 30 or 40-odd wins this market. It may have to be a late thrash from a lower-order batter, too.

Aamer Jamal, the all-rounder, has the ability for the win. A power-packed all-rounder, Jamal is a serious performer who knows county conditions well from a stint with Warwickshire. He averages 23 and has two Test 50s. One of those was against England. The other against Australia in Sydney. He can bat.

Back Sajid Khan top Pakistan first-innings bat @ 33/134.00

Sajid Khan, the spin bowler, also appeals at 33s. Sajid is best known as Pakistan's tweak specialist but he is more than handy with the bat, with ball and ostentatious moustache. He has a first-class ton to his name and, again, has frustrated England in the past. He hit 48 not out against them in Rawalpindi.

Back Ollie Robinson top England first-innings bowler @ 11/43.75

Picking out a bowler to do more damage than the rest if we're right about conditions may seem tricky. But the style of bowler should help filter a top first-innings winner and in that regard it is hard to ignore Ollie Robinson.

He should perfect for Leeds as the side's premier seam and swing bowler. We know he has an extremely strong hit rate on the market despite a stop-start-stop Test career and the only worry is that he might be slightly off it because of high expectation.

No other bowler in the line-up can match his artistry. And that is what is required. Nipping the ball back, moving it away. Express pace or unsettling batters with bounce is unlikely to be required. He should be fresh and energised, which is not what can be said about Gus Atkinson and Josh Tongue who come straight in after The Hundred. Brydon carse and Jofra Archer are battering rams when batting is a little easier.

Back Mohammad Abbas top Pakistan first-innings bowler @ 13/53.60

 Mohammad Abbas is a similar profile to Robinson. It's all about the brains rather than the brawn. Abbas won't be smashing batters in the helmet or getting the ball to leap off a length. His is a subtle art.

Abbas will operate at around 80mph, maybe less, and just the nibble ball in and out causing confusion among batters. With strong county experience, he could well be lethal.

The only worry is whether he plays. Pakistan's ridiculous selection policies are such that Abbas was dropped after he took eight wickets in their recent first Test against West Indies.

It would be utter madness to leave him out here. Abbas has 15 wickets in five tests in England with two top bowler wins.

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