New Zealand v South Africa Fifth T20 Tips: Back SA to clinch series if batting first

Click here New Zealand v South Africa odds
Wednesday 25 March, 06.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

New Zealand v South Africa team news

New Zealand will be skippered by Jimmy Neesham with Tom Latham sidelined in a further weakening of an already second-string Kiwi XI. Cole McConchie could also be absent after he signed to Rawalpindi to play in the Pakistan Super League. Spinner Jayden Lennox stands by but he would lengthen the tail.

The positives are that the hosts have a dynamic front three with the bat in Tim Robinson, Katene Clark and Dylan Cleaver. And they have a solid 12 overs from Kyle Jamieson, Ben Sears and Zak Foulkes.

Possible NZ XI: Robinson, Clark, Cleaver, Kelly, Jacobs, Neesham, Clarkson, Foulkes, Jamieson, Sears, Lennox

South Africa resisted the temptation to shuffle their pack after two horrible batting efforts. They levelled the series but the form of Wiaan Mulder and Tony de Zorzi causes concern. The pair can't buy a score. The batting has been over-reliant on Connor Esterhuizen. In that regard South Africa have learnt little about genuine contenders to make the step up.

A solution might be asking Rubin Hermann to open with De Zorzi and move Mulder to the middle order. Prenelan Subrayen came into the XI for the Wellington match as South Africa used just the two specialist pacers.

Possible SA XI:  R Hermann, De Zorzi, Esterhurizen,  Mulder, Forrester, Smith, Linde, Coetzee, Subrayen, Maharaj, Baartman

New Zealand v South Africa pitch report

New Zealand are expecting pace and bounce at the Hagley Oval. Could this be the first game of the five where we see batters dominate? Don't count on it. England smashed 236 and New Zealand replied with 171 in October but the runs per overs for night matches in T20i comes in at just 8.42.

If we filter the last six years and include domestic night matches, that average drops further to 8.07. Indeed, England's total is the only score busting 190. With drizzle around this might be another contest where we look to get shy of total match runs. The higher line on the Kiwis at 162.5 may be of interest. The no 50 in the match is also of interest at 5/16.00. 

New Zealand v South Africa match prediction

Throughout this series we have consistently stated there is nothing to choose between these two teams. This is borne out by the 2-2 score as we head to a decider in Christchurch. The hosts remain favourites at 1.845/6.

That, however, is a massive drift from the numbers in that 1.501/2 to 1.608/13 bracket previously. It is much closer to the choice affair that we suggested should have been fair at the start.

South Africa are 2.1411/10. That's harder to take when we've just had a winner on them at 2.57157/100. Man for man, however, they still appear to have the edge. It is time for Mulder or De Zorzi to deliver and, if they do, the gulf in class could be truly opened.

The caveat is the toss. There are hints of a bias of under lights at Hagley Oval. It's eight wins for the side batting first from the last 14 results so we would only play if the flip went in favour of the visitors. 

New Zealand v South Africa player tips

Robinson has a strong back-foot game so will be well suited to the Hagley Oval pitch if it is quick. He top scored last time out but a score of 32 hardly suggests he returns to the mean here. The 7/24.50 is fair given he opens the batting and his record in the market is good.

A more straightforward play is overs on the performance line at 24.5 (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket). Robsinson has played 22 T20i and he has beaten that mark in 14 of them.

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