View the percentage chance for each candidate based on average odds matched throughout the night on the Betfair Exchange.

This is the story of the 2024 presidential election so far showing daily average odds from the Betfair Exchange for each of the main candidates

Get an instant view of Harris or Trump's chance of winning the 2024 presidential election which uses data from the Betfair Exchange to show each candidate's percentage chance

US state prediction map for the 2024 election using Betfair Exchange odds to percentages. Numbers represent each state's electoral college seats - to win the election the candidate needs a majority of 270 seats. A state's allocation is essentially based on population size.

To win the US election a candidate must win the electoral college. Each state is allocated a total according to population, there are 538 available and 270 is the total the winning president needs to achieve.
Click here to read a full explainer on the Electoral College

This Betfair Predicts graph shows the average daily odds of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris winning the 2024 US Election from the Betfair Exchange starting from July 1 onwards

Percentage chances of Trump and Harris to win the 2024 presidential election using data from the Betfair Exchange

This Betfair Predicts graph tells the story of how the Betfair Exchange odds moved during the first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Watch as the market moves in favour of the Democrat candidate who started the night as underdog but flipped the betting on its head.