US Midterms Betting Preview: The best bets from 10 Senate races as Trump's Republicans fight to survive

---

Will it be midterms wipeout for Trump's Republicans?

With the midterms less than a week away, the only question seems to be: Will the Democrats win, or will they win big?

The House is near certain to go blue on Tuesday night, and the four Senate gains necessary to flip that chamber - including at least two in states Trump won by double-digits just two years ago - is looking more likely than not.

Polls show Democrats leading in an astonishing eight Republican held Senate seats, though in many cases by very narrow margins. Can they really win so deep in red states?

There are essentially two theories on this. The first is that the polls are likely overstating Democrats a bit as they often have previously, and that in the end a few Republican voters will hold their nose and return to form - especially in the deeper red states.

The second theory is that it makes sense for Republicans to have a generationally bad night, as they are led by a generationally unpopular president with unprecedentedly bad approval ratings.

Both theories have merit, but I am leaning to the latter.

Outside MAGA loyalists, Trump is electoral poison

Not only has Trump's approval rating among Republicans been falling far more than it did in his first term, but we now have actual data from tens of millions of Americans who have already voted by post or in person (many states open polling stations not just on election day).

While interpreting the early vote is always tricky (we can't open the votes and count them, so it's guesswork based on demographics of who is voting and in which areas), signs so far are very positive for Democrats.

Most notably this is visible in Nevada, where the Governor is up for re-election. Nevada publishes if people voting early are registered Democrats, Republicans, or Independents and so fairly strong comparisons with past elections can be made. So far the Democrats are posting extremely impressive numbers.

But Senate elections are not national, they are a state-by-state affair. And betting isn't about predictions, but prices. On which note, here is a run down of the 10 states which will decide the Senate and my thoughts on the outcome and betting markets for each one.

---

Michigan Midterms Prediction: El-Sayed can justify short odds

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrat 1.330/100, Republican 3.929/10

The only Democrat defence I'm including in this article. Republicans had hoped to win the seat which Democrats narrowly held by under 2% in 2020.

The race received even more attention after Democrats nominated Abdul El-Sayed for the seat. El-Sayed is a staunch progressive hoping to follow in the footsteps of Bernie Sanders, and would also be the first Muslim elected to the US Senate.

Republicans nominated Mike Rodgers, a former member of Congress and fairly typical MAGA Republican.

The race has been extremely bitter so far, and polls suggest it will be similarly close to the 2020 race despite the strong performance Democrats look likely to post nationally.

El-Sayed is clearly suffering somewhat for his strong left-wing views, in particular his fierce anti-Zionism, but he's also an articulate speaker (and former Rhodes Scholar) who has effectively framed his views as part of Democrats' critique of inflation and cost of living.

On Israel, for example, he now frames his opposition to US support as wasting public money which could be better spent at home.

A rising tide lifts all boats, at least to some degree, and these elections will be too good over all for Democrats to lose a state like Michigan. I do wonder if Senator El-Sayed can hold in less favourable times come 2032, however.

Bet: The value has probably gone on the Democrats now.

Texas Midterms Prediction: Talarico a solid favourite

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrats 1.51/2, Republicans 2.982/1

Another race heavily influenced by the choice of candidates, Texas has been a target for Democrats at a state and presidential election level for at least a decade now. Once a true red heartland, the state is definitely winnable for them in the right circumstances.

Those circumstances may have come, as Republicans ousted their sitting Senator and nominated Ken Paxton, the state Attorney General. Paxton has a remarkable history of legal troubles, having been previously criminally charged for fraud and publicly investigated for abuse of office, bribery, and other allegations after whistleblowers raised concerns.

That scandal led to Paxton being impeached by the Texas statehouse, despite it having a majority of Republican members, though he was not convicted by the (also Republican) state senate.

Democrats nominated statehouse member James Talarico, who has a 2-3% lead in current polls. As well as Paxton's infamous reputation, a strong backlash by hispanic voters against the Trump government's highly aggressive actions while allegedly enforcing immigration law might be enough to make a once unthinkable victory possible.

Bet: I think the odds are about right here.

South Carolina Midterms Prediction: Democrats a value outsider

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrats 3.711/4, Republicans 1.341/3

The only state in my roundup where Republicans currently lead in the polls, but the fact South Carolina is even in question tells you a lot. Republicans consistently win the state by at least 10% in Senate and Presidential elections, and Democrats haven't had a Senator elected here since 1998.

Again, a Republican heartland is at risk in part to the strong national picture for Democrats and in part the specific candidates. Republicans actually did renominate the longstanding incumbent for the state, Lindsey Graham, to run for a fifth term, but he died of a heart attack in July.

With little time before the election, Graham's sister Darline - with no elected experience - was appointed to his seat and (narrowly) won a rushed second primary for the party.

Darline has not proven a strong performer, most notably dodging a question about Taiwan in a televised debate by admitting she doesn't know much about the subject and that national security is 'not my thing'.

It should be unthinkable for her to lose to local paediatrician Annie Andrews, who is only slightly more experienced having run and lost in 2022 for a House of Representatives seat in the state. However, polls show Darline Graham only ahead by 1-2% on average. If the bottom truly falls out of the Republican vote - and a sustained gamble on Andrews suggests it has - then this state could turn blue.

Bet: This is probably the best value on a Democrat longshot currently available, and at nearly 3/1 they're worth a small punt.

Maine Midterms Prediction: The end has come for Collins

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrats 1.68/13, Republicans 2.747/4

A state Donald Trump has never won in a presidential election, Maine is home to one of the US Senate's great survivors.

Susan Collins has been renominated for a potential sixth term representing the state as a Republican Senator, and has a history of beating the odds. Despite a sharp decline in swing voters over recent decades, she continues to have sizeable crossover appeal and notably won in 2020 despite almost all polls showing her 5-10% down.

This time it is Democrats who have needed a replacement candidate, after their initial nominee was forced out following revelations he had made numerous insensitive and potentially racist online comments, allegedly sent explicit photos to other women despite being married, and had a tattoo on his chest of the Totenkopf insignia used by certain Nazi SS units.

The new candidate, Troy Jackson, is a local politician who previously led the statewide Senate. He's also from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, but has also largely pivoted away from this to criticise Susan Collins for a history of sounding more bipartisan than her voting record.

Collins has a record of publicly objecting to policies the Trump government proposes before, eventually, voting for them.

Polls show Jackson leading by about 2-3% on average, and betting markets are very clearly aware of Collins winning from a bigger deficit last time.

Bet: Collins has finally run out of road, and cannot repeat her escape act in a political environment so polarised. The odds are too long on the Democrat.

Alaska Midterms Prediction: If Dems do not win big Alaska could go to the GOP

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrats 1.392/5, Republicans 3.55/2

Alaska has three Republicans on the ballot facing only one Democrat. And two of those Republicans are called Dan Sullivan.

The state uses a form of the alternative vote where an initial election is held in August followed by a final election in November with the top four candidates competing in a ranked ballot.

In August that first election was topped by Mary Peltola, a Democrat who in 2022 won the previously safe Republican House of Representatives seat in the state.

Second place was the current Senator, Dan Sullivan, and in third place was another Republican also called Dan Sullivan. The second Dan Sullivan is a man with no history in politics who entered the race three days before the deadline.

Republicans say it's a dirty trick to confuse voters, Democrats say they have nothing to do with it. Ultimately the courts ruled he can stay on the ballot, but without the Republican label and with the current Senator listed as 'Incumbent'.

Polls show Peltola, who campaigns as an independent-minded Democrat with the slogan 'Fish, Family, Freedom', leading by 2-3%. That, combined with the risk of even a small number of voters mixing up their Dan Sullivans, make Democrats favourite to win according to the betting markets.

Bet: The market is too bullish here, and if you think Democrats might fall short of their polling then this is a state worth backing the Republicans on.

Ohio Midterms Prediction: Reps may be a value bet

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrats 1.42/5 Republicans 3.185/40

The Ohio Senate election sees a race with two incumbents, more or less, as former Senator Sherrod Brown is running to win back his place in the Senate after losing in 2024. He faces Jon Husted who has only been a Senator since 2025 as he was appointed to replace JD Vance when the latter became Vice President. 

Brown had represented the state since the 2006 midterm elections and had a strong record of retaining the Democrats traditional working class industrial base which has, nationally, defected mostly to the Republicans. 

Given the extremely strong national polling Democrats are showing it should be an easy win for him, but polls of the state give him a consistent but small lead of just over 3% on average. It's one piece of evidence towards a wider theory that Democrats are making bigger gains in red states and black/hispanic voters than their traditional white working class base in their traditional strongholds, and means Husted can't be counted out.

Bet: The odds here are about right, but I would be tempted by a small punt on Husted as a proxy for Democrats underperforming a little overall.

Nebraska Midterms Prediction: GOP hold likely

Betfair Exchange Odds: Independent 3.185/40 Republicans 1.454/9

From a traditional Democrat state to one which hasn't been competitive for well over a decade, the fact Nebraska is even one to watch is itself a terrible sign for Republicans. This time there actually is no Democrat running as the party has stepped aside in favour of an Independent candidate: Dan Osborn. 

Osborn is a local union leader who ran in 2024 and, it must be said, is very obviously the proxy Democrat candidate. However, with no official party affiliation and freedom to criticise the Democrats on anything he wants (and he certainly does) he may have the credibility to win over disaffected Republicans in a way an official Democrat could not. 

His opponent Republican Pete Ricketts, who like Husted in Ohio has only been a Senator for a couple of years. Senate terms are typically 6 years but if replace someone else midway through you serve what's left of their term and Ricketts won a by-election (or as the Americans call them, a special election). 

Nebraska is a state which routinely votes for Republican candidates over Democrats by 20% or more, and Ricketts won in 2024 by 25%. However, on the same day Osborn lost to the other Republican Senator (running for a normal 6 year term) by only 7%. 

Not only is a swing of that scale very plausible in the current polling, with Osborn actually leading by a point or so, but Nebraska is a farm state where the spike in diesel prices triggered by the Iran War has hurt particularly acutely. 

The stars would need to align extra specially for an Osborn victory, but if you believe the polls then this is a very close race.

Bet: There are better states to back Democrats overperforming, such as South Carolina. I've actually bet on Republicans at these odds a few weeks back.

Iowa Midterms Prediction: Market may have underestimated Dems

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrats 2.265/4 Republicans 1.748/11

Another farm belt state, but one with somewhat closer results in recent years, Iowa voted Democrat as recently as the Obama era. Since then it has swung sharply to the right as white collar whites shifted from Democrat to Republican, and Trump won the state all three times he ran for President.

Nonetheless, Democrats tend to lose by single digit margins in Senate elections and in a national environment this positive for them they have their hopes up. 

Just this once both parties have nominated fairly normal candidates, a member of Congress for Republicans (Ashley Hinson) and a member of the Iowa Statehouse for Democrats (Josh Turek). The campaign too has been far less bizarre than many other states, mostly focusing on the cost of living (especially for Turek). 

Like Nebraska, the costs the Trump administration have loaded on farmers hits home particularly hard here. Both diesel prices and tariffs have proven unpopular, though recently the issue of AI data centers (Trump loves them) has become prominent also. 

Polls here are virtually tied, though most averages have Turek a nose ahead. Democrats are hoping their much more popular candidate for Governor who leads by 7% or more can drag Turek over the line in a tight contest.

Bet: No glaring errors by the market here, but I think 5/4 on Turek is a tad too long.

Kansas Midterms Prediction: Dems may just surprise

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrats 2.285/4 Republicans 1.645/8

Completing our farm belt trio, Kansas is a state less reliably Republican than its reputation suggests. The state currently has a Democratic Governor and margins of victory for Republicans in other elections have been less crushing in recent years. Nonetheless, Kansas is home to the longest winning streak in the Senate: there hasn't been a Democrat Senate victory here since 1932. 

The man hoping to break that cycle is Adam Hamilton. But he isn't a politician, he's a priest. Specifically, Hamilton is the senior pastor at the largest United Methodist church in the US and has never run for elected office before. Republicans have renominated Roger Marshall, who was a local doctor before running for the House of Representatives in 2016 and US Senate in 2020. 

Hamilton is a smart choice for Democrats, with his faith giving his credibility when he promises not to lean into some of the more Woke campaigning and governing some elements of the Democrats have indulged in. But the novice politician is perfectly willing to fight dirty, running ads highlighting how Marshall pursued patients to court and bankruptcy and even arrest for unpaid bills as small as $50. 

Remarkably, Hamilton has a very narrow lead in the polls. But Democrats getting their hopes up should consider that six years ago Marshall was barely ahead in polls but romped home by 11.5%.

Bet: I'm tempted by a bet on Hamilton winning, as the odds are similar to South Carolina but the voter demographics are very different. Gives you two shots at Democrat overperformance.

North Carolina Midterms Prediction: Dems red-hot favourites but Rep odds too big

Betfair Exchange Odds: Democrats 1.031/33 Republicans 26.025/1

A genuine battleground state, North Carolina hasn't seen a margin of victory above 5% in either the Senate or a Presidential race since 2016, and not more than 10% since 2010.

This time it might, certainly if the Exchange odds are accurate. Democrats have nominated arguably their best candidate in the whole country in Roy Cooper, a man twice (narrowly) elected Governor of the state in 2016 and 2020. He faces Michael Whatley, the former Chair of the statewide Republican Party. 

In normal circumstances the race would be very tight, and both sides would be pouring money into advertising. In this cycle, North Carolina stands as a testament to how strong the baseline is for Democrats. Cooper leads by over 10% in the polls and Republicans have cut their advertising to spend more in other states (especially Texas). 

Cooper did have a giant poll lead ahead of his last election as Governor and won by 4.5%, so there is a glimmer of hope for Whatley. But it would be a huge upset if Democrats didn't make their first and probably easiest Senate gain here, and betting markets reflect that.

Bet: It's telling that these odds aren't crazy, but I think 25/1 is too much and big polling errors aren't that unusual. Expect to lose your money though, this one's a true lottery ticket.

---

Now read US Midterm Elections 2026 Live Blog

---