Back Brett Favre to lead the Vikings to Superbowl XLIV glory

NFL / Neil Monnery / 18 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Can you really place your hard earned money on a 40-year-old quarterback coming off shoulder surgery leading his side to glory in Superbowl XLIV in Miami? Conventional logic says you'd be insane but you might just be one step ahead of the game, writes Neil Monnery.

When Minnesota Vikings head coach Brad Childress bent over backwards to accommodate Brett Favre and make him 'his guy' everyone thought he'd made a mistake of epic proportions. Rumours were rife that players were unhappy that future Hall of Famer and two times retired Favre wasn't even in training camp. They didn't seem to think he would be committed and even worse - they didn't think he had it anymore.

Now, halfway through the season, all that negative talk has evaporated. The Vikings are 8-1 with that solitary loss coming at defending Superbowl champions Pittsburgh Steelers in a game where a tipped pass as Favre and the Vikings were driving to win the game led to a pick-six and the game was over.

They have the best running back in the game in Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin, who I have as my early Rookie of the Year, who is great at both running back kicks and has already earned the trust of Favre as a deep threat by simply catching everything thrown in his direction.

The Vikings are a balanced team who can play with anyone in the league and if Favre's shoulder holds up then they're the team to beat. Currently trading at [9.2] they are coming in all the time.

Elsewhere in the NFC the favourites to win it all are the undefeated New Orleans Saints at 5.0 but they are too one-dimensional. If you can stop Drew Brees then you can stop the Saints. They do not represent value and they just don't fill me with confidence.

The best outside bet from the NFC is the Arizona Cardinals who are either awful or fantastic. There is no middle ground. They are making the playoffs from the weak NFC West and if Kurt Warner can get on a roll and the offensive line gives him time they can pick anyone apart. They are trading at [26.0] on the exchanges at the moment and should see money at that price.

Over in the AFC the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots are the class of the field. They played on Sunday night where Bill Bellichick made the stunning 4th and 2 call on his own 28 only to see it backfire and the Colts drive 28 yards for the win. It was a stunning game and showed off the two best quarterbacks in the NFL today.

Classic game though it was, both the Colts and Patriots are too reliant on Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Much like Brees and the Saints they can tear a team apart if they are given protection, but one dimensional teams are always worrisome. Neither team can run the ball effectively, unlike the Vikings who are just much better balanced.

Everyone is starting to take the Cincinnati Bengals seriously but if you're considering a bet, think hard. To win the Superbowl they'll have to beat the Patriots, Colts and the NFC champions back-to-back-to-back. And that just isn't happening. The AFC Championship game will surely be a rematch of the classic on Sunday night

So to recap - the Vikings at [9.2] is where I'm going - with the Cardinals at [26.0] as the value bet. The Patriots are at [7.8] and are a better price than the Colts at [5.2] but they are a real toss-up.