Betfair Official Blog

Tommy Lee Jones an outside bet at best for Best Actor Oscar

Click here to view market

Masters of all special bets Chicken Dinner talk us through the Oscars nominations and the betting

The Oscar nominations - early form guide.

Bewildering and difficult as always, the good folk of the movie industry rolled out of bed ridiculously early this morning to announce the Academy Awards nominations at 5.30 am, LA time. While the great and good of Hollywood probably headed straight back to sleep, what with the writers strike keeping them under house arrest, speculation as to where the glory is headed this year has begun in earnest.

BEST MOTION PICTURE

Only twice in the last ten years has the Best Actor winner starred in the Best Picture (Russell Crowe, Gladiator, 2000; Kevin Spacey, American Beauty, 1999). So with Daniel Day-Lewis the big [1.15] favourite for the acting prize, it doesn't look good for third-favourite There Will Be Blood, trading at [3.5].

Only once in the last thirty years has the director of the Best Picture not been nominated for a Best Director statuette (Bruce Beresford, Driving Miss Daisy, 1989). Hence second favourite Atonement, a [3.75] chance, seems to stand no chance - Joe Wright was politely ignored for the directing gong.

And thus, the Coen Brother's "return to form" (thanks, every single film critic alive) should have it in the bag for No Country For Old Men, favourite at [1.81].

LEADING ACTOR

The Academy loves an epic, larger-than-life performance (Forest Whitaker, Last King of Scotland; Russell Crowe, Gladiator) so Daniel Day Lewis' over-the-top performance as a big oil baron in There Will Be Blood should see him picking up his second Best Actor award (since My Left Foot, 1989) ahead of Johnny Depp, who is rated as a [6.0] chance. No actor has won for anything remotely resembling a musical since Lee Marvin in Cat Ballou in 1965, and Depp sings most of Sweeney Todd.

LEADING ACTRESS

Four of the last five awards have gone to actresses playing real people (Helen Mirren playing the Queen, 2006; Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash, 2005; Charlize Theron as Aileen Wournos, 2003; Nicole Kidman as Virginia Woolf, 2002). This bodes well for Marion Cotillard who trades at [4.0], playing Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose, and Cate Blanchett playing Elizabeth I who is priced up at [12.0].

At least it would if it weren't for Julie Christie, whose tour de force performance as a woman with Alzheimers in Away From Her makes her the massive favourite at [1.7]. Also in Christie's favour is that the Academy has a tremendous weakness for portrayals of physical or mental illness (Day-Lewis, My Left Foot; Hoffman, Rain Man and dozens more). And if that weren't enough, dressing down can do wonders for a beautiful Hollywood lady, just ask Halle Berry (Monster's Ball, 2001), Charlize Theron (Monster, 2002) and Nicole Kidman (The Hours, 2003). All looked ropey, all won.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Since 2000, the average age of the winning director has been 55, and no one under 30 has ever won the thing - the youngest ever being Norman Taurog, who won in 1931 for the film Skippy. He was 32. That counts out 30-year-old Jason Reitman (Juno) who is [12.0], and even second favourite Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will be Blood) may be considered too young at 37.

That means it should be between the Coen brothers who trade at [2.38] (50 and 53) for No Country for Old Men, and Julian Schnabel (56), for The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, who may be worth a speculative punt at [5.0]. On only six occasions in the last thirty years has the Best Director not directed the Best Film (Warren Beatty, 1981, Reds; Oliver Stone, 1989, Born on the Fourth of July; Steven Spielberg, 1998, Saving Private Ryan; Steven Soderbergh, 2000, Traffic; Roman Polanski, 2002, The Pianist; Ang Lee, 2005, Brokeback Mountain). With No Country For Old Men the favourite for Best Picture, fortune must favour the Coen Brothers.