Weekend Preview / Graham Cunningham / 24 September 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

There is over £350,000 in prize money on day one of Ascot's star studded QEII weekend this Friday. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham pinpoints a clutch of horses to keep an eye on and has also been dusting off his dancing shoes for a tilt at the Strictly elimination markets.

Consistent Cavalier can have the last laugh in Haydock seller

A £250,000 Sales race, a £45,000 Listed race and a £10,000 seller are the three races which catch the eye this Friday.

First up is Ascot's Watership Down Stud Sales Race at 3.10 and, without wishing to be rude, the vast majority of the field couldn't win if they started now.

Theladyinquestion is a potential improver, but my idea of the best betting strategy is to keep it simple with Shamandar as the main bet and Dubawi Heights as the saver candidate.

Shamandar plainly has an exceptional chance at the weights based on her fine second behind the subsequent Flying Childers winner Sand Vixen at Newbury and her recent defeat of useful rivals at Salisbury.

She fully deserves to be a hot favourite, but Dubawi Heights is progressing very nicely judged on her fine third behind Guineas favourite Lady Of The Desert in York's Lowther Stakes and could give the market leader much more to think about than the betting suggests.

Most punters will focus on recent smart winners like Polly's Mark and Snoqualmie Girl in the Princess Royal Stakes at 3.45, but I rate Princess Taylor the value option.

Granted, she's come up short against smart fillies on numerous occasions recently, but her consistency is hard to fault and she's better off with Snoqualmie Girl than when finishing just behind her in the Galtres Stakes at York last month.

In summary, it could be that Princess Taylor's lack of a turn of foot will count against her again here. However, this return to a mile and a half looks all in her favour and I suspect that she will represent solid win and place value if the market shapes up as I suspect.

Haydock's Vale UK Selling Stakes at 3.55 features the latest appearance of the talented yet mercurial Buddhist Monk.

Jamie Spencer's mount plainly has the ability to win a soft race like this, but I don't trust him when the going gets tough.

Last week's Ayr winner Applaud is a viable alternative, but my eye is drawn to Oriental Cavalier as just about the best bet of the day.

Reg Hollinshead's gelding is nothing special, but he's a solid 70-rated handicapper who tries hard and that could be enough against a clutch of rivals who are either very ordinary or brittle when it comes to a scrap.

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Six good reasons why Richard Dunwoody could be dancing on thin ice

1 He is unknown to the vast majority of the Strictly Come Dancing votership

2 Most of his celeb rivals are assured of considerable support even if they dance more like Henry Kelly than Gene Kelly

3 Judge Bruno dismissed him with a "not a clue" summary of his brief effort last week

4 Partner Lilia said the judges wouldn't have a mark low enough for him after watching Joe Calzaghe awarded just two out of ten

5 Judge Len has already dismissed him as a "rank outsider."

6 His dour personality is unlikely to resonate with judges or audience

Admittedly, if you feel one of the better bets of the weekend lies in Strictly then one of two factors is highly likely to be at play.

First, you may be guilty of doing way too little homework on the racing. Or second, you might just have spotted a very interesting trading opportunity.

And I think that's the case with Dunwoody, who hardly looked a natural in last week's group dance and may well be much less prepared than some of his showbiz-based rivals having spent much of the summer involved in worthy charity projects.

In short, I think Dunwoody has precious little chance of polling more votes than at least five of his rivals and will do very well to avoid being in the bottom two once the public have spoken.

I've backed him at 11-4 and 9-4 to dance off into the sunset on Saturday night with the aim of trading out at evens or shorter before that all important dance off.

Incidentally, Strictly is no longer known as Strictly in our household. Why so? Well, my colleague David Yates - aka known as Newsboy of the Mirror - also fancies Dunwoody to get the boot and phoned Boylesports in the early hours of last Sunday morning to take a price.

The Irish lady he spoke to admitted she had never heard of our Richard and summed up the ability of most of the contestants by saying "sure, they roll around like spuds on a trailer."

"Spuds On A Trailer." If that's not a fine name for a dance show, I don't know what is.

Tags: Ascot Betting, horseracing betting, racing bets, Strictly Come Dancing