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Ungaro all set for big run at Kempton

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Graham Cunningham gives us his tips for Kempton and a bit of rugby league to boot

Back Ungaro and lay Simon in another first class Post

The task today is to draw an identikit picture of a Racing Post Chase winner.

Weight is no barrier, as eight of the last nine have shouldered eleven stone or more. Fancied horses dominate, with the last ten all sent off at single figure odds, while most winners have lined up seeming open to improvement.

Using those criteria Gungadu is clearly a plausible winner, as he jumped like a buck at Sandown and won with authority despite idling.

Dream Alliance represents connections with a rich pedigree in this race and looked all set for a return to form prior to unseating Richard Johnson at Exeter, while Bagan may have crept under the radar with just a 3lb penalty for his easy Warwick win.

But the pair I will be homing in on for Saturday's Kempton feature are Ungaro and Simon.

Ungaro is the win and place option. Granted, the fancy prices have gone thanks to Pricewise, but his proven Kempton record and a fine second behind An Accordion at Doncaster last month suggest a big run is highly likely.

Some readers will be surprised to see Simon nominated as a place lay. John Spearing's gelding showed rare guts to win this in very deep ground last year, but conditions will be much faster this time around and I suspect this thorough stayer will struggle to go with the leaders when the pace hots up.

Alsadaa the value as Numide puts his Festival credentials on the line

Put up or shut up time has arrived for novices with Cheltenham aspirations, and Numide's spring target depends on Kempton's Dovecote Hurdle.

Gary Moore's gelding was good enough to finish fifth in the French Derby on the Flat, and some reports suggest his canny trainer feels he could be the best he has ever handled.

Smooth wins at Leicester and Taunton laid the foundation for this step up in class, but Numide is in much deeper here and I will be looking to lay him in the win market given the strength of the opposition.

Stellino is plainly a strong rival after his runaway Taunton success, while I'msingingtheblues is another strong contender, but the one who could be overpriced here is Alsadaa.

Laura Mongan's gelding got bogged down in deep ground at Sandown, but his earlier second in a big Ascot handicap off a mark of 133 reads very well.

He's a tenacious front runner and might just prove vulnerable late on, but he makes definite appeal as a back to lay vehicle and a repeat of his Ascot form back on good ground will make him a very solid place investment.

Kauto kerfuffle won't be the last scare story as Cheltenham looms

Just over two weeks to the Festival. Plenty time for running plans to change due to injury or the weather. And plenty time for fun and games to match last week's Kauto Star incident as Betfair markets respond to rumour.

On that topic, it was interesting to read Alan Lee in the Times reporting that Paul Nicholls "believes the influence of betting exchanges to be largely malign."

Leaving aside the fact that Nicholls trousered a cool £100,000 from Kauto Star's share of the Betfair Million last year, the champion trainer surely knows the genie can't be put back in the bottle now.

And, in many respects, the setback to Kauto Star provided an object lesson in how things should be handled when a leading ante post fancy hits trouble.

Word of a problem seeped out, as it has since time immemorial, but instead of enduring days of fevered speculation punters soon had a statement from Nicholls outlining the facts and enabling Betfair to suspend the Gold Cup market overnight.

Fortunately, the news on Sunday morning was positive. Nicholls added he would have "preferred to deal with it quietly" but that is a mere pipedream in the modern era. As it was he dealt with the matter in exemplary fashion.

Now it's just the layers who offered Kauto at more than treble his true odds who are suffering from an unexpected setback.

Bulls to charge as Saints come to town

See what happens when you try to diversify?

Regular readers will remember last week's blog contained four racing advices which all proved bang on the money.

I also dipped a toe into the Super League pond to suggest Warrington were worth backing outright and with a 6.5pt start against St Helens.

Sadly, Saints came storming back from behind to draw clear late on. Am I daunted? Yes, a little, but not daunted enough to stop suggesting that the [1.7] about Bradford Bulls beating St Helens in tonight's live Sky game is a very fair price indeed.

Cunningham's weekend plan

1 Kempton 3.15: Back Ungaro win and place
2 Kempton 3.15: Lay Simon for a place
3 Kempton 2.05: Lay Numide to win
4 Kempton 2.05: Back Alsadaa to place
5 Back Bradford to beat St Helens at 1.7