World Cup Betting: Keeping England expectations realistic

World Cup / Frank Gregan / 19 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Frank Gregan has been around long enough to know that massive hype surrounding an in-form England team often ends in disappointment when the major tournament actually comes around. Here are the do's and don'ts for the next few months.

Fabio Capello is doing a fantastic job which is being reflected in his team's results. There seems to be a great spirit in the England camp, a mixture of confidence without arrogance and a professionalism that is not over-stated and firmly lacking in gimmicks. There are no tarot card readings, gambling schools or curfew breakers, a mutual respect that was lacking under Steve McLaren is now evident amongst the players.

Qualification for the World Cup in South Africa next year is pretty much assured and the relief that all English fans are feeling is immense because no matter how good a tournament other countries put on, if England have not qualified it makes for a dreadful sporting summer.

The England squad will be sent out to South Africa with Ally McLeod-esque optimism and endorsements from everybody eager to curry favour with the footie mad English public, the Queen, the Prime Minister, the Britain's Got Talent judges et al! The cross of St George will be flying from houses all over England and the Red Tops will be united in their support of "our boys."

The ease with which England will qualify is going to be a major factor in the hype that will be generated and become a millstone around Capello's neck but let's put it in perspective. Andorra would probably get beat by Swindon and Kazakhstan wouldn't hold their own in the Championship. Ukraine and Belarus are no great shakes whilst Croatia are a shadow of the side that humbled England at Wembley before dramatically losing on penalties to Turkey in the quarter-finals of Euro 2008.

We've been here before, many times. False expectations lead to disappointment and inevitably the end of tenure for the English coach. This mustn't be allowed to happen again, England have found a coach who has delivered a summer to look forward to and a team to be proud of - lessons have to be learnt from the McLaren debacle. A realistic goal is a quarter final berth, anything else should be considered 'exceeding expectations.'

The World Cup Winner market is up and running and already attracting decent volume but the amounts being wagered are small fry compared to the volume that will be lumped on in the weeks leading up to the event. It is very early days but there is some tremendous value out there and it is time to start compiling a portfolio.

The Dutch have already qualified but are available at [15.0] and Germany, who look certain to qualify, are available at [14.0]. Both of those seem to be very fairly priced and if you fancy that a Northern Hemisphere side will prevail, they should be backed. Spain head the market at [5.9] and appear to be unbeatable at the moment but that is much too short a price for a team (Euro 2008 excluded) who flatter to deceive when a tournament reaches the business end.

England are [10.0] to back and that is far too skinny. It seems incredible that Capello's men are fourth favourites with only Spain, Brazil and Argentina shorter in the market. A much better value bet is their main rivals in the group. Croatia have a battle on their hands to finish second and secure one of the eight play-off places for the additional four qualification slots but if it turns out that their recent form is only a blip, then the [240.0] that is available will prove to be a great price should they make it to South Africa.

Let's hope that England do us proud next year but let's also learn from our mistakes and keep expectations realistic whilst ensuring that the following happens: Fabio Capello keeps his job even if he fails to emulate Sir Alf Ramsey and penalties are practiced until the players can hit the inside of the side netting with the regularity of a weightwatcher on a prune, figs and all bran diet!