The Betfair Contrarian: Why Liverpool will win the Premier League

The Betfair Contrarian / The Betfair Contrarian / 13 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Yeah, yeah, we've heard it all before but the Betfair Contrarian reckons this could be Liverpool's year. Jose Mourinho agrees.

Don't be alarmed by the snorting, sniffing and hacking you can hear when Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher is nearing a microphone, it's just the way he speaks. This year, as with every year, he and his Liverpool cohorts have been heard spluttering about how it's finally their year, they've got the squad to do it, they're going to win the Premier League. They do, of course, say that stuff at the beginning of every season, but for once Carragher might not be clearing his throat in vain. Here's why:

They are closer now than before

Liverpool finished 30 points off the pace in Gerard Houllier's final season (2004) but four years on Benitez has closed that gap to just 11. That may still sound like a large margin but it can be bridged within a season. Chelsea finished 11 points behind champions Arsenal in 2003-04 before claiming their first title the next season.

Teams that finish a season strongly fare well

All the plaudits from February onwards were awarded to Chelsea for closing Manchester United's lead but Liverpool were performing stronger than both. The Reds won 11, drew three and lost just one of their final 15, giving them a point average of 2.40 a game post-February that exceeded that of Chelsea (2.29) and Man United (2.14). The team with the best point average from February onwards in each of the past three seasons has won the league the next year.

Liverpool will score goals... lots of goals

Liverpool scored 119 goals in all competitions last season, more than double winners Man United. This season they should score more. New signing Robbie Keane was top British goalscorer in the league last season with 15, scoring more than Carlos Tevez and Wayne Rooney. A lot has been made of his £19 million transfer fee but he scored the same number as Dimitar Berbatov, who is only six months younger and yet reportedly valued at £28 million (go figure!).

As if that isn't enough...

Fernando Torres broke Ruud van Nistelrooy's record for the most league goals by a foreign import in their debut season by netting 24 times last season. Van Nistelrooy went on to win the Golden Boot and the title in his second season. Other top strikers to arrive in England in recent seasons such as Didier Drogba, Emmanuel Adebayor and Dimitar Berbatov all scored more in their second season than their first.

And the defence has been strengthened

Benitez has purchased well-needed full-backs in Andrea Dossena and Phillip Degen. More importantly, centre-back Daniel Agger, who Jamie Carragher described as a "big miss" last season, will return from injury. With Pepe Reina, winner of the Golden Gloves award for most clean sheets for three straight seasons, still in goal, Liverpool shouldn't leak many goals.

The appalling League record against United has to stop

Liverpool have not beaten United for eight league matches. The last time they failed to win in eight consecutive (1996-2000), Liverpool followed the run with four straight league wins.

Even their enemies fancy their chances

Jose Mourinho was vilified on Merseyside while Chelsea manager but tipped Liverpool to win the league this year. He said: "Man United and Chelsea will be fighting but one day Liverpool are going to get that title. I think it might be this year."