Betfair Official Blog

If they awarded points for dogged determination, the Premiership trophy would already be en route to Stamford Bridge, ready for presentation to a Chelsea team and manager who have shown a pathological refusal to accept that the title race is over. They're yet to lead the division at any point this season - and would become the first team to come from behind on the season's last day, should they take more points in this game, than Manchester United manage to secure at Wigan.

The momentum's certainly with Chelsea though, winning six of their seven games since Robbie Keane's late equaliser at Spurs, and now addressing their draw-tendency at the Bridge, dropping points in only three of their last 12 there, having done so in six of the previous nine. Indeed, momentum counts for a lot with Chelsea, the Blues winning 12 of their last 14 home games when they come back to the Bridge after an away win.

Bolton are also in their season's best form and unbeaten in four, enough to guarantee their Premiership safety at home to Sunderland last weekend. It leaves them with little to play for, save an improvement of their manager's appalling record against Big Four opposition, losing 12 of his combined 13 at WBA and Bolton (home and away) so far, at an aggregate deficit of -30.

That said, Bolton's redeeming victory over Sunderland could be significant, Chelsea drawing half of their six home games under Avram Grant (and 8/17 more generally) against teams who come to the Bridge off a home win, including Wigan, the last bottom-halved team to come to West London.

There's at least some evidence that Bolton can hold the Blues until half-time. In 16 games between a Big Four side needing something from the last game of the season and a side with nothing to play for, half of the games have been draw/win - including five of eight when the Big Four team was at home. Stamford Bridge is the lowest scoring of the Big Four grounds this season (47), 10 of the Blues' 15 non-Big Four games producing less than two goals. Indeed, only Derby have scored less than Bolton's 12 away goals this season - the Trotters failing to register on all of their Big Four trips so far this season.

Gary Megson clearly struggles to break elite opposition down on the road - teams under his supervision scoring only once in this seven Big Four trips - and that in a 2-5 defeat at Arsenal.

Chelsea have kept clean sheets in 68% 15/22) of home games against bottom-six opposition.

	Chelsea				Head to Head		Bolton
	Last 5 home	Last 19 home	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp A form	Chelsea home	Chelsea all	Last 5 away	Last 19 away	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp H form
Played	5	19	38	5	5	10	5	19	38	5
Av Match YC	3.2	3.5	3.7	4.0	3.0	3.7	3.2	3.7	3.2	3.2
Match RC	0	5	9	0	1	2	1	1	2	0
Av Team YC	1.4	1.7	1.7	1.8	1.2	1.2	2.2	2.4	2.0	2.8
Team RC	0	3	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Av Opp YC	1.8	1.8	1.9	2.2	1.8	2.5	1.0	1.3	1.2	0.4
Opp RC	0	2	3	0	1	2	1	1	2	0
Av Match FG	39	44	37	32	21	37	32	30	37	31
Av Team FG	41	47	45	32	31	42	75	62	58	64
Av Opp FG	74	74	70	83	41	65	39	36	50	31
Av Match Cnrs	9.4	10.8	10.9	11.8	9.4	9.4	11.4	11.7	12.2	10.2
Av Team Cnrs	7.2	7.5	6.7	7.8	7.2	5.6	3.8	4.6	5.6	3.2
Av Opp Cnrs	2.2	3.4	4.3	4.0	2.2	3.8	7.6	7.1	6.5	7.0