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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Liverpool won't finish fourth in the Premiership

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The Betfair Contrarian is at it again, this time putting forward an argument for Liverpool missing out on a Champions League spot for next season

This season was supposed to be the one when Liverpool turned the corner. And so it has proved - just not the right corner. Their hapless meanderings have made the likelihood of returning to their glory days in the league even more remote than they were 12 months ago, and in place of that particular fantasy is a nagging fear that they may not even qualify for the Champions League.

If they don't get their act together, that nasty little dream could easily come true. As things stand, they are going to be celebrating finishing fifth at their end of year party.

It is not easy to gatecrash the top four late in the season

Only once in the last six years has a team lower than fourth at this stage of the season gone on to take fourth spot or better - Liverpool are currently fifth.

And it's even rarer to make a run from fifth spot

Only once in the last ten years has the team lying fifth at this stage of the season gone on to finish fourth.

Liverpool's once-fabled consistency has become their undoing

The last four seasons have seen Liverpool finish in the same position they were in after 25 games - suggesting the Reds will finish fifth. The last time Liverpool were fifth at this stage of the season, they ended up finishing fifth - that was back in 2005 and back then it was also Everton who lay fourth at the time and eventually got that fourth spot.

To finish in the top four, Liverpool would expect to be there by now

Not once in the last ten years when Liverpool finished in the top four did they arrive there after being outside the top four after playing 25 games.

They don't have a top four home record

Liverpool have just five home wins this season - no team that has finished in the top four at the end of the season in the last ten years had as few wins at home as that. The lowest was the six home wins Liverpool amassed by this stage in 2003/2004. Liverpool have gained more points away from Anfield so far this season - 23 away and 21 at home. No team has finished fourth in the last ten years having secured more points away from home by this stage.

They don't have a top four away record

Liverpool have scored just 14 times away from home this season - the average number of away goals the team finishing fourth had scored by this stage over the last ten years was noticeably higher - 17.6.

Liverpool are already lagging behind last year's fourth place finisher.

Fourth-placed Arsenal had two more points, had scored six more goals, had a better goal-difference, and hadn't been beaten at home.

And in spooky coincidences...

The last time Liverpool finished outside the top four was 2004/05. That season, like this season, arch rivals Manchester United came and won 1-0 at Anfield with a first half goal. That season Liverpool also won the first leg of their last 16 Champions League game by a two goal margin at home (W3-1 v Bayer Leverkusen). That season Liverpool also went out to a Championship side in the FA Cup - they lost to then tenth-placed Burnley, where as this year they went out to fourteenth-placed Barnsley.