The Betfair Contrarian: Why City will win the Manchester derby

Premier League / The Betfair Contrarian / 16 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Stephen Ireland could play a key role if Manchester City, tipped by the Betfair Contrarian, do in fact beat Manchester United.

"Manchester City’s bid to record successive wins at Old Trafford failed in May when they were beaten 2-0. The goals that made the difference on that day were scored by Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez and obviously neither of them will be lining up at the weekend. "

He's at it again: this time the Betfair Contrarian tries to convince us why the blue side of Manchester will be the ones celebrating after the city's derby on Sunday afternoon.

Despite heading into Sunday's derby with a 100 per cent record and having beaten Arsenal far more convincingly than Manchester United ([1.69]) managed to a fortnight before, Manchester City are still [5.8] on Betfair to win at Old Trafford. The Betfair Contrarian has found six reasons why you should back the visitors and prove the existence of a Big Five.

Manchester City have the momentum

Mark Hughes side has played five competitive games this season and won the lot, only conceding against Arsenal. Any concerns about their away form after they won just twice on the road last season have been vanquished with victories and clean sheets against Blackburn and Portsmouth, in matches that they took just one point from last season.

They prefer playing United early on

Its rare that the first Manchester derby of the season takes place in August or September, but on the three occasions that it has happened in the last 20 years, City have delivered. They thumped United 5-1 in 1989 and then in September 2005 built on an unbeaten start with a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford, which was an impressive result considering they had gone 31 years without winning there. The last time they went into a clash with the champions holding a 100 per cent record was in 2007 and on that occasion they triumphed 1-0 before completing the double with a 2-1 win at Old Trafford.

United are missing their goalscorers

Manchester City's bid to record successive wins at Old Trafford failed in May when they were beaten 2-0. The goals that made the difference on that day were scored by Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez and obviously neither of them will be lining up at the weekend. Its also worth noting that the champions won just one of their six league clashes with Big Four opposition last season losing three and were outclassed in the Champions League final. There are therefore question marks over their ability to deliver in big games, especially now Ronaldo isn't there to bail them out, and the fortuitous victory over Arsenal last month didn't answer them.

Sparky has a good record again his former club

Hughes will have been disappointed to have lost both Manchester derbies last season having held his own against United while in charge of Blackburn. However, it's worth noting that Sparky failed to record a win against them in his first season at Ewood Park when inheriting someone else's team, but after making his mark on the side, he went on to do the double over them the following season. Considering Manchester City's team this season is nothing like the side Hughes inherited, theres no reason to doubt that a similar pattern could emerge.

Bellamy relishes local derbies

As striker after striker rolled up at the entrance to Eastlands this summer, Craig Bellamy was mocked as having no chance of getting a game this season. However, after reacting with trademark tenacity, he has featured in every match so far, starting three and playing a starring and scoring role in the 4-2 win against Arsenal. The Welshman also has a handy knack of grabbing goals in derbies, scoring in wins for Norwich over Ipswich, Newcastle over Sunderland and Celtic over Rangers as well as notching in West Ham's unlikely 1-1 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last season.

Adebayor and Tevez could yet play

The disciplinary process that is expected to land Emmanuel Adebayor with a ban ruling him out of the match is proving to be the slowest fast-tracking routine in history, so there is no guarantee (as of Wednesday afternoon) that he won't be available. The Togo striker has scored in every league game this season, as well as his last two league visits to Old Trafford and hasn't been on the losing team in a league match that he's started since November 1 last year. Carlos Tevez likewise could still recover in time. The Argentine scored the winner the last time he played for the opposition at Old Trafford with West Ham.