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Premiership Betting: Torres favourite for top scorer

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With many of the market leaders linked with moves away from the Premier League could an outsider stake a claim for the golden boot?

If you are going to be the Premiership's top scorer, chances are you are going to need to be playing for one of the 'big four' - and Betfair's Golden Boot market reflects that.

The favourite, by quite some way, is Liverpool's Fernando Torres at [4.9]. No doubt backers were encouraged by the way he netted Spain's winner in the Euro 2008 final, and his 33 goals in his first season at Anfield included 24 in the Premiership.

Torres has shown, then, that he can handle the demands of life in England, but at the current price in such a crowded field, it's hard to recommend a punt.

There are joint second favourites with both Cristiano Ronaldo and Dimitar Berbatov trading at [12.5]. Ronaldo could, of course, still be a non-runner and that uncertainty has seen him drift all the way from [5.0] to his current mark. Any player who bangs in 31 Premiership goals has to be considered again - but will he ever have such a prolific season?

Berbatov may well either fill a void left by the Portugese superstar, or even end up playing alongside him. Whether a move to Old Trafford would enhance his chances of being Premiership top scorer has to be open to question though. Spurs were one of the more free-scoring teams last term, allowing Berbatov to net 15 in the league - if he moved in alongside the likes of Ronaldo, Rooney, Tevez et al, would he be afforded as many chances in front of goal?

Half of the first eight in the betting are being linked with moves away : Arsenal's Emmanuel Adebayor matched Torres with 24 Premiership goals last term, and because he is so pivotal to the Gunners' success, his price of [27.0] looks reasonable . . . provided he stays of course!

Then there's Didier Drogba [16.0], who has not joined Chelsea on their tour of China due to an apparent knee problem. An injury-free run this campaign, coupled with actually still being at Stamford Bridge, would surely make him a contender for the Golden Boot.

However, at [65.0], I think Nicolas Anelka looks the better bet of the current Blues hot-shots.

Recent history seems to dictate it is between the market leaders - the last 'outsider' to top the goal charts was Sunderland's Kevin Phillips back in 1999/2000. Of the leading contenders, I like Portsmouth's Jermain Defoe. The England international has scored goals for fun wherever he has played, and netted eight in 12 outings after arriving on the South Coast last season. Before that he managed 64 goals for Spurs, despite the fact that more than a third of his 177 appearances at White Hart Lane came as a substitute.

With his international teammate Peter Crouch [42.0] and veteran Kanu appearing to be ideal partners for Defoe, I think the [22.0] on offer looks quite tasty.

Of the players at bigger prices, Roque Santa Cruz [42.0] was a revelation last season for Blackburn, netting 19 times in the Premiership. With Paul Ince at the helm, Rovers will hope to creep into the top six and the Paraguayan international is likely to be a regular.

West Ham's Dean Ashton managed 10 goals in the league last season despite often looking to be struggling for sharpness after his well-documented injury woes. The England target-man ended the campaign with three goals in the last three games, and given a run of luck with injuries, then the [42.0] on offer at the moment may prove to be a bit high.