Premier League / Bettorlogic / 28 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Bettorlogic scour the Manchester derby form book to come up with the stats you need to make the best bets.

Match Odds

City's win over Arsenal last weekend kept alive their streak of seven consecutive seasons with a home win over one of the Big Four (only Chelsea and Arsenal can boast longer runs) and they get a crack at back-to-back wins with the visit of their neighbours. The majority of City's wins against the Big Four have come at United's expense, going W4-D0-L2 at home to them since their promotion in 2002 -- compared to W4-D3-L14 against the other three. City are one of only two teams in that time (Chelsea being the other) to have recorded more wins than losses against Man U.

Mark Hughes will be hoping to ingratiate himself with the blue half of Manchester by repeating the feat of his three predecessors and beating their cross-town rivals at the first attempt at home. To do so, City will have to become the first team since Southampton in 2001 to win successive home league games against members of the Big Four.

Their hopes of doing so may be higher than normal as well against a United side winless in three on the road with seven goals in seven games this season. In fact, Ferguson's men haven't scored more than two in an away game in nine months (12 games) -- their second-longest run in the Premier League.

United have not been convincing away since the start of last season, winning under half of their games (W12-D8-L6) -- the worst record amongst the Big Four. Of those wins, five came against teams that finished in the bottom six last season with a W5-D5-L3 record against the rest. This season they have managed a W1-D3-L2 record at sides currently residing outside the bottom six. All of which suggests that at an odds-on price ([1.95]) United are too short and should be opposed.

Correct score

United have been struggling for goals and are just W2-D7-L6 on the road when conceding since last season. The 1-0 and 1-1 (both 5/26 and 4/20 against non-Big Four teams) are the most common scores in their away games in that time.

City have scored in every home game this season (one of only three teams to do so), although similarly their four wins have all been to nil, while they have lost the three in which they conceded. The 1-0 (5/26) has been most frequent at Eastlands since last season, although it has been the 3-0 (3/7) which has dominated this term.

HT/FT

Going back to his Blackburn days, Mark Hughes has lost just two of his last 26 first halves (HT W3-D2-L0 v the Big Four) and none of his last 14 at home (HT W3-D1-L0), with City trailing at half-time only at Wigan this season. Their most common HT/FT result has been the D/L (5/14 -- 2/7 at home) with the W/W (4/14 -- 3/7 at Eastlands) the only other to occur more than once.

Equally, United have been behind at half-time in just one of their last 15 (at Arsenal), with the W/W (8/26) easily the most common result for them on the road since the start of last season. As with the correct score, there is little agreement between the sides' numbers and the market is probably best left alone.

Man City clean sheet

United failed to score in the league for the first time in a year in their last match at Villa Park and they haven't been held goalless in consecutive games since the end of the 06/07 season. Under Hughes, City's defence has been up-and-down -- keeping five clean sheets (joint-fourth best in the league) but allowing at least two goals in the other nine matches -- making the home clean sheet very hard to back.

Man Utd clean sheet

United's away troubles have been up front not at the back where, against a tough early schedule, they have kept clean sheets at a similar rate to recent seasons (3/7 so far -- 8/19 in the last two campaigns). However, City's attack ranks second (both overall and at home) and has yet to draw a blank under Hughes so 'No' ([1.35]) looks the better option.