Premier League Relegation Betting: Newcastle's survival is not black and white

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 26 July 2010 / Leave a Comment

Newcastle fans celebrate winning the Championship - but will they be back there at the end of the season?

"Newcastle's start includes away trips to both Manchester clubs in the first seven games so you can see it won’t take long for the ‘Newcastle Crisis’ headlines to get dusted off."

Four teams are ahead of Newcastle in Betfair's relegation market - and that can't be right says Ralph Ellis

I saw Newcastle when they won at Reading towards the back end of last season. At the time, Toon were in the thick of a sensational run which ended with them taking 42 points from the last 16 games. Not surprisingly the Toon Army had travelled in numbers and were in fine voice throughout the game, cheering on their heroes.

They sang songs for Steve Harper, for local hero Andy Carroll, and for Kevin Nolan who got two goals that night. They called for Chris Hughton to give them a wave. And when the final whistle went they cheered as their players celebrated a win which all but guaranteed the Championship title.

And then, within seconds of the first players disappearing down the tunnel, came the loudest chorus of the night aimed at owner Mike Ashley "you fat cockney b******, get out of our club".

It was a stark reminder that the problems which dogged Newcastle all the way into relegation from the Premier League two seasons ago have not gone away. The 'Cockney Mafia' headed by Dennis Wise might no longer be in charge of player recruitment, and winning the second tier and amassing 102 points in the process might have pushed the problems out of the limelight for a while, but they are still there. And it's a stone cold certainty that within a few weeks of the start of the season they will resurface.

Ashley couldn't sell the club a year ago when he wanted to, and slid into the background while relying on the strongest squad in the Championship to rise to the surface. Getting back into the big league could have been the chance to invest again. Instead he's kept his hands in his pockets. So far Newcastle's only signings have been youngster Dan Gosling on a free from Everton and £1.5million for untried Nottingham Forest defender James Perch.

And the players Toon are being linked with are hardly mouthwatering - the likes of Scunthorpe striker Gary Hooper and ancient former England star Sol Campbell. Talk of an attempt to sign Real Madrid legend Raul has been dismissed out of hand by Hughton who says "he would have to take a massive pay cut".

So it's back to hoping that Joey Barton will finally put his problems behind him, and there was little sign of that when he was hauled off after playing only half of a 2-1 friendly defeat at Norwich at the weekend. Throw in a start that includes away trips to both Manchester clubs in the first seven games and you can see it won't take long for the 'Newcastle Crisis' headlines to get dusted off.

All of which makes me think that Newcastle are pretty good value at [4.4] in the newly opened Premier League relegation market. Blackpool, not surprisingly, are favourites. I spent one day last week in the inspiring company of Ian Holloway at their pre-season training base in Devon, and by the end of it he had me believing they could pass the ball like Spain and live in the highest company. But reality says he's working with only 17 players in his squad at the moment and the opening price of [1.29] to go back down is justified.

West Brom are [1.88] to continue their yo-yo existence and look desperately short of goalscorers. But then Betfair's punters make Wigan [3.3] and Wolves [3.5] more likely candidates for the drop than Newcastle.

All of those clubs could yet change their prospects in the last weeks of the transfer window - everybody is looking at the fall out from the big sides who have got to settle on their 25-man squads under the Premier League's new registration rules. (Teams are allowed only 25 players, eight of whom must have played three years in England or Wales when they were under the age of 21, plus an unlimited number of under 21-year-olds).

The likes of Manchester City, with 37 senior players currently on their books and still trying to sign James Milner and Fernando Torres, will have to offload people very cheaply before the window shuts.

Toon's passionate army of fans will be hoping that Hughton can take advantage of that and make some signings to put some backbone into their team. If he doesn't then I fancy we will hear that angry chant aimed at Ashley being sung again pretty soon.