Premier League Relegation Betting: Choppy waters ahead for Pompey?

Premier League / Mike Norman / 13 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Our man Mike Norman knows a thing or two about relegation (he supports Boro), so we think he is the best man around to tip us a big-price runner in this season's Premier League Relegation market.

There are only a few things certain in football, especially in the Premier League.

One is that Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea won't be relegated this season; neither will Everton, Manchester City or Tottenham.

Another is that Burnley ([1.63]) will be relegated, and that they are likely to be joined by two teams not expected to reach the dizzy heights of mid-table mediocrity this season - possibly Hull ([2.02]), Birmingham ([2.12]), Wolves ([2.54]), Stoke ([4.3]) or Wigan ([5.7]).

But I've been value hunting lately, looking for a few teams that are way overpriced in Betfair's Relegation 2009/10 market - and I've unearthed an absolute gem... or rather, a sinking ship!

Ironically, that sinking ship can be found on the south coast of England, at Portsmouth to be precise, a city known for its naval port and dry dock - home to Nelson's flagship HMS Victory. I'm talking of course about Portsmouth Football Club, a Premier League club by name, but one that will have the word 'victory' associated with it very rarely this coming football season as it sinks towards the Football League Championship.

At [7.2] to be relegated, I make no apologies to Pompey fans for saying Portsmouth represent outstanding value to finish in the bottom three. The club is cash-strapped, has an unproven manager at the helm, and has a weak and ageing squad at its disposal.

It's a shame that there aren't two Harry Redknapps in this world - one to successfully climb the managerial ladder, the other to manage Portsmouth. It just seems a little crazy that on the two occasions that Happy Harry was at Fratton Park, Portsmouth weren't short on finances and did rather well on the field - like winning an FA Cup for example.

But under Tony Adams, and now Paul Hart, Portsmouth find themselves in that irretrievable position of having to sell their most prized assets in order to balance the books.

Gone are star players Jermain Defoe, Lassana Diarra and Glen Johnson. Also no longer at Fratton Park are Jermaine Pennant and Sean Davis, whilst Noe Pamarot, Lauren, Glen Little, Djimi Traore and Jerome Thomas have been released. Sol Campbell's future is still unclear, as is Kanu's, and Peter Crouch is almost certain to leave in the near future.

On the plus side, Portsmouth have signed Aaron Mokoena on a free transfer from Blackburn Rovers!

It all means that, as we stand now, Hart has got a squad of players that includes only a dozen recognisable names - many of whom have swapped their BMWs and mansions for a free Hampshire Council bus pass and a bed in the local retirement home!

David James is at the ripe old age of 38, Linvoy Primus and Hermann Hreioarsson at 35, Sol Campbell at 34, followed by a trio of thirtysomethings in Papa Bouba Diop (31), Sylvain Distin (31) and Hayden Mullins (30). It's not Premier League football these guys are going to excel at; it's more likely to be crown green bowls and crosswords!

Of the Premier League clubs I've yet to mention, Bolton ([8.6] to be relegated), Fullam ([14.4]) and West Ham ([15.0]) have much the same squads as last season and should enjoy relative success, whilst Fraizer Campbell's move to Sunderland ([10.0]) has persuaded me to think that the Black Cats will survive comfortably this season.

But at one big price, and one enormous price, I'm not totally convinced that Blackburn ([12.0]) and Aston Villa ([90.0]) will survive without a few hiccups along the way.

Blackburn haven't got a strong squad by any means, especially now that they've lost strikers Roque Santa Cruz and Matt Derbyshire as well as the wily old head of Tugay, whilst Villa have a small squad that definitely needs strengthening following the departures of Gareth Barry and Martin Laursen.

But it's Portsmouth who are my outstanding candidates to be relegated, along with Burnley and one other. Cue your thoughts please.