Premier League Betting: Who can beat fear factor in race for fourth?

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 22 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Dirk Kuyt battles with Wayne Bridge - but who will show sufficient abandon to win fourth place?

"Spurs and Villa are trying to win the top four place, while Liverpool, and to an extent City, are terrified of losing it."

Stalemate at Eastlands is symptomatic of clubs' fear of missing out on fourth place but Spurs show that attack is the best route to success. Meanwhile, principles could be the undoing of a couple of clubs at the bottom, says Ralph Ellis.

There are two relegation fights going on in the Barclays Premier League. There's the traditional one at the bottom, which is boiling into a battle over which two sides will join Portsmouth in the Championship next season - always assuming there still is a Portsmouth in existence. And then there's the other one, to determine whether Liverpool are going to be relegated from the Champions League.

Now the financial and football consequences of dropping out of the top flight are pretty well established. You only have to look at the collection of clubs which have fallen all the way to League One to understand that. Southampton, Norwich and Charlton have all suffered.
But if you want to know how bad it is when an established top four side slides out of Europe's elite, the answer is also in League One - Leeds United. After three seasons of "living the dream" under Peter Ridsdale they were fifth in 2002 and the fire sales that followed totally destroyed the club.

Relegation battles produce dour football. That's always been the case at the foot of the table as average sides resort to scrapping for survival. But it looks true at the top now too as Liverpool's manager Rafa Benitez seems to have decided that's the only way to live up to his "guarantee" of finishing fourth.

Yesterday's trip to Manchester City produced the ultimate goalless draw as Benitez set up a side that was dull even by his cautious standards, and Roberto Mancini also stayed true to his Italian safety first principles to protect his club's status as the team in possession of the magical fourth spot.

Ironically, however, both lost out as Harry Redknapp's more adventurous approach at Wigan brought Tottenham a late flurry of two goals by Roman Pavlyuchenko and a 3-0 win that took them there on goal difference. Meanwhile Aston Villa were also flying, taking Burnley to pieces with a 5-2 home win. The difference is that Spurs and Villa are trying to win the top four place, Liverpool, and to an extent City, are terrified of losing it.

Betfair's punters see the race far more clearly than the one point which separates the contenders - and they believe in the safety first principles espoused by Benitez and Mancini. The Reds are [2.9] to be in the top four, with Manchester City [3.6], Aston Villa [4.3] and Spurs surprisingly as long as [5.7]

(Incidentally, all four of them are odds on to occupy the top six places - and unless Manchester United, Chelsea or Arsenal suddenly blow up that can't happen! There's also the threat from Everton who came from a goal down to beat United 3-1 on Saturday and with just one defeat in 12 have become dangerous outsiders at [5.4].)

The curious thing is that in the more traditional relegation battle there are clubs trying to play their way to survival. I've already mentioned Roberto Martinez and his determination for Wigan to pass the ball on a mudheap pitch. But there's also Owen Coyle, who if the table stays as it is this morning would join the select band of bosses to have been involved in two relegated sides in the same season. He is trying to encourage Bolton to be more expansive - the result was they were shot down 3-0 by ultra cautious Sam Allardyce at Blackburn. And meanwhile his old Burnley players were wide open at Villa Park despite the pleadings of new manager Brian Laws.

Their belief in principles is all very admirable, but Stoke have set out the blueprint for surviving on a shoestring budget in the top flight. Strong defence, good organisation, and deadly set pieces broken by just an occasional flourish - exactly the formula that saw them snatch a late 2-1 win with 10 men at Portsmouth.

Of the bottom club managers Mick McCarthy is the only complete pragmatist, and although his team lost 2-0 at home to Chelsea, they show good signs of having the courage to fight their way to safety. They go to Bolton next weekend and could well expose Coyle's attempts to change the style that was so well established under Gary Megson.

Meanwhile, at the top, Drogba's goals brought only the second win in seven matches on their travels for Carlo Ancelotti's side, who are now [1.68] favourites for the title. Perhaps they are now sorting out their problems with playing away!