Premier League Betting: United are still not over Ronaldo

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 28 October 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Many will look at Blackburn’s heavy defeats at Arsenal and Chelsea and expect United to cover a -2 handicap easily."

Manchester United are yet to fully adapt to life after Ronaldo and are struggling for goals at Old Trafford. Chelsea, meanwhile, are hammering them in...

One of the beauties of Betfair is that the multitude of markets on any given match mean there is always a way for players to get involved, however one-sided a match might appear to be, and one such example is Manchester United v Blackburn on Saturday evening.

United are [1.18] to back for the win, but another market option is the Asian handicap. In the case of Saturday's game, United will be around [2.0] to back, or perhaps a touch shorter, giving up a -2.0 handicap. That means United will have to win by three or more goals for backers to win. A two-goal win would be a no-bet, with stakes returned, while anything less would be a victory for layers.

So, the question is: how likely are United to beat that handicap? Many will look at Blackburn's heavy defeats at Arsenal (6-2) and Chelsea (5-0) and expect United to cover the handicap easily.

But there is always another side, and it is no longer so easy to make the assumption that United will coast to victory at Old Trafford. While United have adapted well to life after Cristiano Ronaldo, as second place in the Premier League table testifies, there are underlying form lines that indicate Ronaldo's departure could still have a significant effect.

Most notable is that United have won only three of their opening 10 Premier League games by two or more goals, and none of those has been at Old Trafford. They have won four out of five at home, but all four were by just a single goal.

Contrast that with the previous three title-winning seasons: last season, nine of their 16 home wins were by two or more goals, the previous season the rate was 12 out of 17, and three seasons ago it was 13 out of 15.

Ronaldo's goalscoring influence underpinned those stats. When he started at home and scored, United won 23 out of 30 by two-plus goals (77%), but when he didn't score (or didn't play) United won a much lower 41% by two-plus goals (11 out of 27). In light of those figures, it is not such a surprise that United have yet to win by a two-plus margin at home this season.

Even if they break that duck on Saturday, the long-term figures indicate that United will continue to struggle to win by big margins in the post-Ronaldo era and they look a team to oppose on the Asian handicap, especially in home games.

On current trends, the team to back for clear-cut wins on the Asian handicap is Chelsea, who have a league-leading six wins by two-plus goals this season (Arsenal are next best with five). Since the start of last season, Chelsea also lead the way for away wins by two-plus goals, with 11 from 24 games. If you can pick Chelsea's best winning opportunities on the road, the Asian handicap is an excellent option, because 11 of their 17 away wins since the start of last season have been by two-plus goals (65%).

The market view is that Saturday's visit to Bolton is one such opportunity for Chelsea, who are [1.48] to back for the win. At -1.0 on the Asian handicap, however, Chelsea are [1.79] to back, which is a bet that cannot lose as long as Chelsea win, and is a winner if Chelsea win by two-plus goals.

With a less secure safety net, at -1.0&-1.5, Chelsea are [1.93] in the early betting, but it's a handicap they would have covered in full in four of their six consecutive wins in this fixture.