Premier League Betting: Size isn't everything, or is it?

Premier League / David Croft / 28 June 2008 / Leave a Comment

David Croft looks ahead to the Premier League season 2008/09 and ponders on the strength in depth available to the main protagonists.

It's Friday evening in the Croft household and the weekend is almost upon us. My teenage son Chris is currently playing FIFA 08 on the PS3 whilst Daniel - my 11-month-old baby boy - is re-enacting the Monaco Grand Prix with his racing cars, complete with crashes. Should Daniel look up he'll see that West Ham are currently giving Liverpool a fearful beating, Chris is a bit of an expert when it comes to football games and is well on his way to winning the Premier League title for the Hammers, pity that these computer games don't mirror the real world. In fact just yesterday I completed the Champions League and Premiership double as manager of Reading on Championship Manager. I have discovered the secret to success and my chairman had better recognise that fact in time for next season.

Back in the real world and Chris believes that the Hammers have got a chance of the title next season should they stay clear of injuries. Using every one of my rather cynical 38 years of experience I offer the reply that at [10.0] they're not a bad bet for a top 6 finish but Betfair's [950.0] for the title is pretty realistic of their chances. Chris seems to think that with one of the largest squads in the Premier League West Ham should be capable of much more but size, I tell him, isn't everything.

A large squad might give you the edge in a title battle but only if you've got the depth to go with it. It's what Man Utd had in abundance last year and what cost Chelsea the year before; defensively they just didn't have enough cover. Arsenal too found the going a little tough towards the latter stages of last season and the Gunners fans I spoke to all insisted that Arsene Wenger should have dipped into the transfer market for a little back up last January.

So it's a case of feel the quality more than the width when it comes to separating the contenders from the also-rans, but what else makes the key difference?

There's the Gaffer of course, Sir Alex has a reputation that precedes him and a record that's second to none. But we'll see in the next few weeks how much difference the man at the helm makes when Cristiano Ronaldo stays put or heads off to Spain.

By the way, is it just me that sees something wrong in Big Phil Scolari advising Ronaldo to head off to Real Madrid when as Chelsea manager he stands to benefit by the transfer of a leading player of one of his rivals? Something didn't seem quite right with that story. Back with the managers and Arsene Wenger's revolutionary approach has done wonders for Arsenal over the years, and at Chelsea we wait to see if the arrival of Scholari makes the difference, personally I think he's got his work cut out and I'm not sure I'd take the [3.2] on offer for them to win the title just yet.

Alongside the reputation of the manager, there's also the history and the heritage of the club itself. Try telling those at Old Trafford that playing for one of the biggest, if not the biggest, clubs in the world doesn't make a difference. And the psychological edge that comes from succeeding time and time again on the big stage.

You can factor in that any number of individual players will kick off next year safe in the knowledge that on their day they fear no one and can take on anyone. It's when they come together as a unit with that mentality that the glory comes their way. For me, and I know they're the favourites, no team does that better than United which is why at [2.62] even at this early stage they're my fancy.

And should Sir Alex want to know the secret to repeat his domestic and European double for next season then in my Championship manager experience it's simple. When you win a match save the game straight away, when you lose quit without saving and start again, some call it cheating, some call it the edge, and for computer games, at least I think I've found it.