Premier League Betting Preview: Chelsea v Manchester United

Premier League / James Eastham / 07 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Recommended bets:

Chelsea v Manchester United draw @ [3.4];
Chelsea to keep a clean sheet @ [2.94];
the second-half to have most goals @ [2.12].

Chelsea appointed Carlo Ancelotti to help them win the Champions League, but the Italian looks like he's going to collect the Premier League trophy almost by default, writes James Eastham as he selects the best bets from Sunday's big game.

Liverpool are out of the race, Arsenal will struggle to sustain their challenge (although they're a good bet to finish second) and Sunday's opponents Manchester United are undoubtedly a weaker side than they were last season. It's Chelsea's to lose, making the [2.26] on them to claim their first Premier League crown since 2006 tempting.

They have an excellent recent record in this fixture, too: Chelsea have won four and drawn three of the last seven head-to-heads at Stamford Bridge, with United winning only one of their last 11 trips and scoring on only two of their last eight visits in all competitions.

Yet the [2.06] on Chelsea to win the game is too short for me, so I prefer the draw at [3.4]. I thought Chelsea would be nearer [2.4], so the only way I'd recommend you back them is if their price drifts nearer to the [2.4] mark after the game has kicked-off. United's poor recent record in west London is reflected in their [4.4] price.

There are no strong goals patterns. Five of the last 10 head-to-heads have had under 2.5 goals (which is available at [1.82]) and both teams have scored in four of the last 10 (both teams to score is trading at [1.85]). The most appealing goals wager is Chelsea to keep a clean sheet, something they've done in four of the last six head-to-heads and five of the last 10. It's also worth noting Chelsea's outstanding defensive record this season: they've won five out of five, keeping clean sheets in their last four outings. On the basis of those stats, the [2.94] on Chelsea keeping a clean sheet looks excellent value.

My final bet is also statistically driven. Second-half goals have dominated the games involving these sides this season: seven of Chelsea's 11 games and eight of United's 11 games (68% of all games) have featured more goals after than before the break. That pattern makes the [2.12] on the second-half having more goals a strong selection.

Jose Bosingwa is missing (knee), but Yuri Zhirkov and John Mikel Obi are both available after recovering from injury. For United, Rio Ferdinand (calf) and Ji-Sung Park (knee) are injured and Gary Neville is suspended.

Recommended bets:

Chelsea v Manchester United draw @ [3.4];
Chelsea to keep a clean sheet @ [2.94];
the second-half to have most goals @ [2.12].