Premier League Betting: Liverpool v Manchester City

Premier League / Dan Fitch / 20 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Check that this man is on the pitch before placing any large bets.

Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch is struggling to predict the outcome of Liverpool v Manchester City, but with Bellamy, Tevez, Adebayor, Gerrard and possibly Torres on the pitch, he's certain he'll see goals. Best Bet: Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.88].

Recommended Bets: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.88; Both sides to score @ 1.72; Gerrard to score at any time @ 3.

With the title seemingly out of reach for Liverpool even at this early stage of the season, then they will just have to settle for plain old Champions League qualification.

On Saturday they face one of their rivals for that spot, when Manchester City travel to Anfield. Both teams are out of form and neither can really afford to lose.

Come to think of it, Manchester City can't afford to draw either. Mark Hughes' side have now drawn their last 5 Premier League games, which is not an impressive statistic when you consider that these fixtures saw them go head to head with the likes of Wigan, Fulham, Birmingham and Burnley.

Liverpool's form has been even more wretched. They have won just once in their last 9 games in all competitions, as they have struggled to get results without the talismanic talents of Gerrard and Torres, who have both been suffering from persistent injuries.

Gerrard should be fit to play on Saturday, as should Glen Johnson and Daniel Agger. Torres has trained this week but remains a major doubt, while Benayoun, Riera and Aurelio will all miss out.

For Manchester City, Petrov is missing, but Barry should shrug off a groin injury and Robinho is set to be named on the bench.

Amongst the plethora of big money signings made by City over the past couple of seasons, it is the relatively cheap Craig Bellamy, who has outscored the more expensive Adebayor, Tevez and Santa Cruz.

You just know that Bellamy will be busting a gut to score against his former club Liverpool and when the goalscorer markets appear on Betfair closer to kick off, he should be priced at an attractive [12.0] to score first and [5.0] to score any time.

Torres leads the betting at [4.5] and [2.4], with Gerrard at [7.0] and [3.0]. Adebayor should be priced at around [9.0] and [3.5], with Tevez at [13.0] and [5.0].

Anfield has not been a happy hunting ground for Manchester City, where they have not won a league game since 2003. However, we all know that this City side is not comparable to previous ones in terms of quality.

One thing that does leap out at me when looking at past results is the fact that only once in the last 9 league games between these sides, has the match produced over 2.5 goals.

Despite this statistic, I'm going to be optimistic and back over 2.5 at [1.88]. Neither side are at the height of their defensive powers, with both Liverpool and City having only kept a clean sheet once, in their last 10 outings in all competitions.

Liverpool are the favourites at [1.99], with the draw at [3.6] and Manchester City at [4.4]. If Liverpool field both Gerrard and Torres, then I think that they will just sneak a win. If Torres is absent, then I'd be wary of backing them, as I feel that Liverpool miss him even more so than Gerrard, when either is absent.

With the result of the match being quite tricky to predict, I like the look of the [1.72] for both sides to score. There's also some nice prices available in the half time/full time markets, where Liverpool/Draw is [17.0] and Manchester City/Draw can be backed at [19.0].

As I see goals in this game, 2-1 is available at [9.4], with 2-2 at [17.5]. Though the result is a tough one to call, one thing is not. If either side were to lose this game, then there will be some harsh repercussions for their manager.

Tags: craig bellamy, emmanuel adebayor, fernando torres, liverpool v manchester city, premier league betting, robinho, steven gerrard