Premier League Betting: Defoe makes Spurs kings of the road

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 02 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

"In 2009, Tottenham have had 12 away games against teams outside the big four and, as well as winning five of those games (42%), eight have had over 2.5 goals (67%)."

Jermain Defoe is running riot but Harry needs to learn to beat the big boys. Meanwhile, Avram Grant must instill Portsmouth with resilience...

A couple of clear trends have emerged with Tottenham under Harry Redknapp, and both could be evident again when they travel to Everton on Sunday.

The first is that Tottenham have become a highly efficient side against teams from outside the big four, with seven wins and two draws from 10 games in that category this season. Two of their failures to win (the 1-0 home defeat by Stoke and the 1-1 at Aston Villa) came during Jermain Defoe's suspension for his sending-off at Portsmouth, so clearly the presence of their star striker is a significant factor.

In games started by Defoe against teams from outside the big four Redknapp's side have won nine out of 13 with just one defeat since January. But the stats show that Redknapp has fashioned Tottenham into a top-performing away side even in Defoe's absence.

In their past 10 away games against teams from outside the big four, Tottenham have won five, drawn four and lost just once - even with Defoe not in the starting line-up for half of those games.
That makes Tottenham a good chance at Everton and they are [2.68] for the win in the early betting. Their away win rate from their last 10 visits to teams outside the big four is 50% and overall under Redknapp it is 41%, which indicates they are not as short as they might be.

Tottenham's low defeat rate in this type of away match-up also points to their solid chance at -0 on the Asian handicap, at odds of [1.91] in the early betting.

The other clear trend for Tottenham under Redknapp is that a high proportion of their matches have over 2.5 goals. This season they are joint-leaders in that category in the Premier League, with 11 out of 14 games having over 2.5 goals. Again, Defoe has played a significant role, with over 2.5 goals in 12 of the 17 games in which he has started since his return to the club.

In 2009, Tottenham have had 12 away games against teams outside the big four and, as well as winning five of those games (42%), eight have had over 2.5 goals (67%). Tottenham's high-scoring figures have had an effect on the early odds for Sunday's match, with over 2.5 goals [1.88] to back, but again the odds could have been shorter based on the stats.

Avram Grant needs to put some resilience into Portsmouth if he is to steer them clear of relegation, as he has inherited by far the worst team in the Premier League at coming back from going behind.

Opposing Portsmouth has been a profitable policy this season, and once they have gone behind in-play punters have been able to lay them or back their opponents safe in the knowledge that there is no prospect of recovery.

Portsmouth have conceded the opening goal in 10 of their 14 league games and have lost all 10. They are one of only two teams in the Premier League (Stoke, perhaps surprisingly, are the other) to have failed to gain even a single point from a losing position.

On Saturday they host Burnley, who are also poor at recovering from going behind, having taken only one point from that position this season. The first goal at Fratton Park is likely to be crucial.

Stoke are a strange case. For all their apparent solidity, since joining the Premier League they are winless in 26 when falling behind and have lost 22 of those games. They are another team who can be opposed with confidence when they go behind.