Premier League Betting: Chelsea v Hull City

Premier League / James Eastham / 14 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Having a fit Michael Essien back is almost like Chelsea having a brand new big-name signing.

Recommended bets: Back Chelsea -2 on the Asian handicap @ 2.01; back Chelsea to win 3-0 and 'any unquoted' @ 7.6 and 3.8 (split your stakes); back Chelsea to win HT/FT @ 1.62.

Chelsea made a winning start to their Premier League campaign last season, and James Eastham expects a similarly impressive victory when the Blues begin their latest attempt to regain the title against Hull City on Saturday afternoon. Best bet: Chelsea -2 Asian handicap @ [2.01].

Here's a stat that will make Tigers fans pause for thought: nine of the last 11 promoted sides that have lived to fight a second consecutive season in the top flight after coming up from The Championship have fared worse in their second season than in their first. And by worse, I mean a lower points tally (four points fewer, on average) and a lower final league position.

Geovanni fall-out

Given that Hull finished 17th and collected just 35 points last season, they appear doomed to finish in the bottom three. Things looked so different when Hull began their first-ever Premier League campaign in startlingly impressive mode, recording one the shocks of 2008-09 to beat Arsenal 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium last September, but the deterioration in manager Phil Brown's relationship with the game's match-winner, Geovanni, among others, precipitated a calamitous slide in which Hull collected just eight points from a possible 63 from mid-December to late May. Unless they're able to remain consistently competitive over the course of this season, Hull's return to the second tier of the English game appears inevitable.

Brown will draw confidence from his side's excellent results at Big Four grounds, though. Aside from that superb win against Arsene Wenger's north Londoners, Hull picked up a creditable draw on their trip to Stamford Bridge in this fixture last February (0-0), a point at Anfield last December (2-2) and came from 4-1 down to lose by only a one-goal margin at Old Trafford last November (4-3). Yet Chelsea have a competitive advantage, in that they won the Community Shield last Sunday.

HT/FT market

Carlo Ancelotti seems happy to pair Nicolas Anelka with Didier Drogba up front (which is ironic, given his reluctance to play two up front during most of his time in charge at AC Milan) and while most fans have reservations about the lack of width that is an inevitable by-product of the diamond midfield shape, the sheer quality of Michael Essien, Florent Malouda, Frank Lampard and £18m summer signing Yuri Zhirkov ought to enjoy the Blues enjoy lots of possession and create plenty of chances.

In this game a repeat of Chelsea's 4-0 win over Portsmouth on the opening day last season would be no surprise. The main question for exchange players is how to make the hosts pay, because the price of [1.19] on a home win has little appeal. One alternative is backing Chelsea-Chelsea on the HT/FT result at [1.62]. You need Chelsea to be leading at half-time and full-time, and the price looks too big considering that Chelsea were leading at HT in nine of the 11 home matches (82%) they won last season.

High-scoring options

Backing over 2.5 goals at [1.64] is truly worthwhile only if you think Hull will score; otherwise, you might be better off backing a combination of 'Chelsea to nil' scorelines, such as 3-0 at [7.6] and 'any unquoted' (which covers 4-0, 4-1, 5-0 and 5-1 scorelines) at [3.8] in order to secure a better return. Alternatively, you may wish simply to back a Chelsea Clean Sheet? at [1.67], although I'd be tempted to go for the scoreline selections.

A similarly appealing wager is Chelsea with a goals deficit on the Asian handicap. I was pleasantly surprised to find Ancelotti's side as large as [2.01] with a -2-goal start. You'll get your money back if Chelsea win by two goals, and make a profit should their winning margin be bigger.

* Chelsea v Hull City, Sky Sports 1, Saturday, 12.30pm (12.45pm kick-off)