Premier League Betting: Never mind 'Big Four', City will be lucky to make top six

Premier League / Feizal Rahman / 09 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

If results don't go to plan, Mark Hughes could be feeling the pressure.

"Common sense suggests that bringing in so many big money signings - with egos to match the price-tags - will provide manager Mark Hughes with more problems that solutions. It's questionable whether Hughes has the tactical nous or man-management skills to deal with the task ahead and given a less than auspicious start to the season, he could come under pressure fast."

Feizal Rahman assesses the main challengers for the biggest honour in domestic football - the Premier League.

A Frenchman once commented, 'The more things change, the more they stay the same', but it may be a Scotsman quoting that line at the end of the coming season.

With Manchester the hub of transfer activity this summer, the status quo appears to some to be under threat, as the blue half have gained at the expense of the red. Yet, while the Manchester City 'project' may provide long-term concerns for each of the 'Big Four', in the short-term, their vice-like grip on the top four spots remains stronger than ever, while competition for the title itself may involve just a group of one.

It's impossible to argue that losing Cristiano Ronaldo - unquestionably the world's most dominant player in the last three seasons - will have no effect on the champions, Manchester United. Yet, great players alone don't win titles. Having previously seen the exit of superstars such as Eric Cantona, David Beckham and Ruud van Nistelrooy, Sir Alex Ferguson dealt with it by continuing to add trophies. Bar the odd anomaly, the replacements brought in seamlessly filled the void and the players who remained merely raised their game in the absence of the departed.

Ferguson will now hand a central role to Wayne Rooney, who by default played second fiddle to Ronaldo. Dimitar Berbatov will feature more prominently alongside the England striker, providing assists as well as crafting his own goals. With no Cristiano Ronaldo to take the penalties and free-kicks, Rooney could see his far from prolific goals tally rise and he looks a decent bet at [16.0] to finish the league's top goalscorer.

With shock signing Michael Owen brought in to act as a 'super-sub' - poaching crucial goals in key games - and several youngsters, including Danny Welbeck, Federico Macheda and Zoran Tosic, earmarked for fast-track progression, there are plenty of candidates eager to make an impact and leave Ronaldo a distant memory. Goals have never been a problem for United and with the stingiest backline in the top flight, the club look appealing in the Premier League winner market at [3.5].

Favourites Chelsea ([3.2]) seem to have reached saturation point with their squad with no blue chip additions over the summer, though it remains an impressive collection. Yet, several of the first-team are pushing the wrong side of 30 and the marathon of the domestic competition may once again catch them out. The absence of dynamic midfielder Michael Essien and talismanic striker Didier Drogba for up to a month in January for the African Cup of Nations could also hurt them dearly.

New manager Carlo Ancelotti may instead be looking to focus on the European trophy that has thus far eluded the West London club. The Italian won the Scudetto only once during his time in Serie A, yet took AC Milan to three Champions League finals, two of which they won. It would seem then that Chelsea offer better value to win Europe's elite club competition at [7.2].

Last year's runners up, Liverpool are also relatively unchanged, with only Glen Johnson drafted in to provide much-needed width down the right flank. The club gained a substantial £30m from Real Madrid for midfielder Xabi Alonso but the acquisition of Roma's Alberto Aquilani for two-thirds of that fee sees an almost like-for-like trade. Much rests on the telepathic partnership of striker Fernando Torres and captain Steven Gerrard, who paired up superbly in the second half of last season.

Growing ever-closer to rivals Manchester United in recent years, there's no reason to suggest that Liverpool can't continue that trend. But lacking the overall strength in depth of both United and Chelsea, one worries that if injuries hit the Anfield side, their tendency against lesser sides to pick up only one point rather than all three might linger. Regardless, the Reds look a decent bet at [2.26] to finish higher than Chelsea.

Patience has been the key word at Arsenal for the last four years but for how much longer will fans endure a lack of silverware? Emmanuel Adebayor and Kolo Toure had enough of waiting and their combined £40m move to Manchester City has added to accusations that Arsenal are now a selling club. Only £10m centre-back Thomas Vermaelen has come in so far this summer but the return to fitness of Tomas Rosicky and Eduardo is being hailed the equivalent of two new signings by Arsene Wenger and the services of Andrei Arshavin for a whole season could see improvement.

It's hard to provide any valid argument as to why this increasingly young and inexperienced side should have have any say on the title race but for all of Manchester City's spending, fourth place should still be secure. An interesting statistic under Wenger, however, is that in five of six seasons when there has been a major international tournament at the conclusion, Arsenal have either won the league or made the final of a European competition. A punt on the Gunners at [18.0] for the Champions League could well provide arbing opportunities at the business end of the season.

Finishing 22 points behind Arsenal last season should be reason enough that Manchester City have too much to find to break into the top four. But common sense suggests that bringing in so many big money signings - with egos to match the price-tags - will provide manager Mark Hughes with more problems that solutions. It's questionable whether Hughes has the tactical nous or man-management skills to deal with the task ahead and given a less than auspicious start to the season, he could come under pressure fast.

Teams like Everton, Aston Villa and Fulham - who finished 5th, 6th and 7th last season - are built upon the value of synergistic teamwork. On paper, City have the individual names to compete but as a collective they have much to prove. As such, they look a tempting lay in both the Winner without Big 4 market at [2.28] and Top 6 finish market at a crazily short [1.51].