Premier League / Matthew Walton / 10 November 2008 / Leave a comment

Who are the quick starters and do they last pace? Matthew Walton surveys the early pace-setters and warns against premature Premier League punting.

Too often as backers we get ahead of ourselves. Award the race to the steeplechaser three fences out, assume the cricket team will win when they only have a handful of runs left for victory, lump on the boxer who's well ahead on points.

Football backers, and layers for that matter, are equally guilty of calling the tune long before the fat lady starts singing. Giving the match to the side who scores first, even when there's an hour still to play, presuming the team who misses the first spot-kick in a shoot-out has no chance of winning.

The same applies in terms of the title race - as much in this country as the other leagues around Europe. Sides who get out to an early lead, with the season barely a quarter of the way through, are being backed as if their eventual title success is a formality.

We decided to put this theory to the test by studying the top divisions in Europe. Seeing whether such a policy of premature punting really is advisable when the market in question is who will win the Premier League or Serie A or Bundesliga.

Do the fast starters really last the pace and who are the best front-runners? We studied all the seasonal data from around Europe, taking October as the 'starting point' for our studies -as some 10 games or so into a season the form has settled down to an extent where our findings become much more reliable.

We began with the Premier League. Chelsea currently head the field, trading at around [1.90] to lift the trophy come next May. Recent history tells us that of the last eight winners of the top flight, just three led the table at the end of October/early November. That's a 37.5% strike rate, equivalent to odds of nearer [2.66], making the odds-on quotes about Big Phil's men on the face of it look a little skinny.

And although in recent years we've seen Manchester United (2006/07) and Chelsea (2005/06) head the league from October all the way to the end of the season - and Arsenal front-running from November the year before - other years suggest that leading wire-to-wire is no easy thing in England's top division.

Last season Manchester United only got on top in March, 31 games into the 38 game season. Likewise in 2003/04 Arsenal dominated from February onwards, United again in 2002/03 only saw off Arsenal in April and the Gunners themselves won the title in 2001/02 with a late burst, starting in the month of April.

Clearly, as far as the Premier League is concerned, it pays to be wary of the early season market leaders and Chelsea, especially at odds-on, certainly look opposable. Either lay them or look to sides like Liverpool [5.6] and especially Manchester United [4.4] for better value.

But what about the rest of Europe?

Looking around the various national top divisions we see numerous examples which support this theory of taking on these early season pace-setters. Over in Germany, the Bundesliga champions are another set of teams who are generally slow starters. A perception might be that Bayern Munich simply blaze a trail from August to May and win the league by 20 odd points every season.

Fact is, although they may have won the title in five of the last eight years, they finally hit the top spot (and stayed there) twice in October and once in each of December, January and May. Of the last eight Bundesliga champions since the 2000/01 season only three have been front-runners from earlier than January - again a lowly 37.5%.

By that logic, does that make Bayern Munich, currently down in 3rd place, good value or not at [1.8]? It probably does.

However, a word of caution must be added with the example of France. Here we see Lyon leading wire-to-wire for the past four seasons winning by 4, 17, 15 and 12 points respectively during those campaigns. They are already 4 points clear this season, possibly making current odds even as short as [1.41] seem acceptable.

That said, even though they have actually won the title for the last seven seasons, prior to their recent dominance the title winners didn't get their noses in front until March (2003/04), May (2002/03 and 2001/02) and April (2000/01 when Nantes were champions).

Spain is another league where the task of leading from the front is none too easy. Once again we see just three Primera Liga championships this century settled by the mid-point of the season. Barcelona (2004/05 and 2005/06) and Real Madrid (2007/08) have done so but Barcelona blew it in May of the 2006/07 season as Madrid pipped them and in each of 2001/02, 2003/03 and 2003/04 the winners didn't start to dominate until around Easter. All of which makes Barca's current [1.73] seem none too generous.

Finally, in Italy, although Inter Milan have blitzed Serie A in each of the last two seasons, the previous five findings as to when the eventual winners finally get their noses in front read November-May-January-February-May. Should you therefore want to back Jose Mourinho's side at [2.02] the data doesn't exactly back up the value in their current mark, more their city rivals AC at [3.05].

Overall, our findings point clearly to a three-pronged attack when it comes to the outright betting markets in the various top flights around Europe. However, whichever one you choose to follow, a support of current table-toppers, market leaders and flavour of month sides isn't recommended. Not statistically anyway.

These sides, generally, are asking to be laid. History tells us that winning from the front is possible but the earlier in the season a side takes over the top spot, the less likely they are to make it all the way. The best policy is to lay them - especially in the case of England, Spain and Italy where the number of legitimate title challengers is higher.

If you simply must back the top side, it's better to wait until later in the season. January onwards is the time to switch from laying the leaders to backing them.

Look to the value elsewhere in the various title races. We've highlighted a few teams above and no doubt you can find a lot more!

Whichever way you play it, make sure you apply a cardinal rule which all backers and layers should never forget (but few actually remember) - never jump to conclusions. It can be a very expensive mistake!