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Premiership

Everton a cracking bet to be top of the Premiership pile come the end of August

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If you're trying to bet on who will be top of the Premiership table come the 31st August, who better to listen to than the man they call "Mystical" Mike Norman?

If you're a little impatient like me and need a fix of Premiership betting without having to wait until next May to see who wins the title, then why not take a look at Betfair's 'Month End Top-Aug' market.

The rules are very simple; select who you think will be leading the Barclays Premier League at 23:59 on Sunday 31st August 2008.

That Sunday 31st August date is quite a significant one however, because it means that whilst most of the Premiership teams will have played three league games to this point, two of them almost certainly won't have. This is because Setanta Sports will request one of that weekend's fixtures to be moved to Monday 1st September for live television. Whoever plays on the Monday can't realistically finish August as the Premiership leaders, but unfortunately at this stage we don't know which two teams that will be.

Sensible punters would wait until Setanta's live game is known, but the last time I was labeled sensible was when I was so drunk I switched to half pints instead of pints - only to drink them twice as fast!

The current betting for this market has Manchester United at [4.3] ([4.8] to lay), but punters have obviously not realised (until they read this) that Fergie's boys could (and probably will) only play two Premiership fixtures in August because of their European Super Cup game against Zenit St Petersburg on Friday 29th. United's home match against Fulham, scheduled for Saturday 30th, will most likely be postponed until a later (rather than earlier) date meaning United and Fulham ([60.0]) can NOT finish August as the top Premiership team.

It's also worth noting that, to my surprise, the last five seasons have seen one of the big four top of the table come the end of the first month. Chelsea topped the table last year with three wins (against Birmingham, Reading and Portsmouth) and a draw (against Liverpool), but the four preceding years saw the table topped by a team that had a 100% record at that stage. It goes without saying that with only three Premiership fixtures scheduled for August, we must find a team that will win all three games.

My own hunch is to side with Everton at odds of [12.5]. They start with a home game against Blackburn (a team they haven't lost to in their last six Premiership fixtures) before travelling to newly promoted West Brom. Everton's third fixture is another home tie, this time against FA Cup winners Portsmouth, and I believe David Moyes' men have what it takes to win all three.

Arsenal ([3.6]) are the current favourites to top the table at the end of August, and with home fixtures against West Brom and Newcastle, and an away trip to Fulham, it's easy to see why. But I just have a sneaky feeling that the game against Newcastle could well be the one that is shown live on Setanta on September 1st - call me mystical, call me what you like, but you read it here first.....

At [5.3] and [6.6] respectively, Chelsea and Liverpool complete the top four in the market. I'm not keen on Liverpool's chances as they have a couple of tricky looking away fixtures (Sunderland and Villa) in the first month but I must admit to being a little surprised at Chelsea's odds. I was expecting them to be favourites to be honest, as they host Portsmouth on the first day of the season, travel to Wigan the following week, then play Spurs at Stamford Bridge for their third fixture. Almost certainly Sky will televise this game on either Saturday or Sunday meaning Chelsea are safe to play all three games in August.

Can Big Phil Scolari, with Deco replacing Lampard in the midfield, get off to a flyer? Let me know what you think.

Of the rest, Aston Villa ([17.5]) make the most appeal. They started last season reasonably well and this year they kick off with a very winnable home game against Manchester City before travelling to Stoke. Their third fixture is the tricky one, but I definitely think they have what it takes to beat Liverpool at home, and if they enter that fixture on the back of two wins, you could well be looking at your Premiership leaders come the end of August.