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Football Betting: English football in good health

Pacman to the point RSS / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 07 June 2009 / Leave a comment

As England's senior team already have one foot on the plane to South Africa and the Under 21s look in good nick ahead of the European Championships next week, Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco reflects on the general state of English football.

It's been a rather good weekend for English sport what with Jenson Button taking a step closer towards his first-ever World Championship title and the England football team now in a position to politely inquire about the cost of a ticket to South Africa next June. Betting.betfair.com columnist Ryan ten Doeschate's unbeaten 22 contributed to the cricket team's downfall but we'll let the willow and leather experts on the site dissect that one elsewhere as we turn our attentions to football.

A quick look at the Betfair markets tells us that England trade at just [1.01] to win Group 6 and with "minnows" Andorra coming to town on Wednesday night in a match the hosts are also [1.01] to win, the England players can already look forward to a bit of biltong and the odd glass of Castle beer this time next year.

A further glance down the Betfair soccer markets tell us that the England Under 21 team will not only be at the European Championships in Sweden in a couple of weeks time but they are actually the third favourites at [5.0] to win the thing. Cast your minds back a few weeks to the Champions League semi-finals and you'll remember that three of the four teams were English, though the eventual winners of course weren't. All of which suggests English football is in a pretty healthy state.

For what it's worth, I thought Chelsea were unlucky not to have made a second consecutive Champions League final rather than being the victims of any Michel Platini-engineered conspiracy theory. If UEFA had determined that the two finalists could not have been the same as last year, then wouldn't Eric Abidal have stayed on the pitch rather than being given his marching orders? The referee had a bad night and Chelsea rightfully felt hard-done by but that's football and these things happen.

It's hard to pinpoint why exactly it is that English teams have been so successful in the competition in recent years compared to their Spanish, Italian and German counterparts but I'd say the continuity in the hot seat with Ferguson, Wenger and Benitez given every chance to build the team just as they want it, has a lot to do with it. As does the fact that the Premier League's top few teams are probably the richest around. And I feel there will be more of the same next year so look out for the Champions League "winning nationality" market in a few months time and back "British" at anything bigger than [3.0].

It is far easier to explain the turnaround in fortunes that the England senior team has experienced. The appointment of Fabio Capello was the best decision of any kind the FA have made in years and one I welcomed before it happened. Prior to his arrival the following questions remained unanswered: why were such world beaters at club level as Gerrard, Lampard and Rooney devoid of confidence when they pulled on an England shirt, where should Wayne Rooney play, how did you go about solving the Gerrard/Lampard dilemma and what do you do if England had a match that finished after Theo Walcott's bed-time?

The answers in the same order are: you get confidence when playing for England by winning matches for England, wherever he is required to play depending on tactics/injuries/opposition, by playing one in front of the other rather than side-by-side and by starting him and then bringing him off at half-time as happened against Kazakhstan on Saturday night.

Capello is a no-nonsense manager and I'd hazard a guess he's like that away from football too. Hotel bookings for WAGS, drinking sessions masquerading as bonding sessions and choreographed goal celebrations have given way to mobile phones being switched off during get-togethers, unconditional respect towards the manager at all times and discipline on the pitch as well as off it. Having said all that, England are far too short at [9.6] to win in South Africa. Spain are the best-drilled side in world football at the moment but perhaps a tad short at [6.4] given that Euro 2008 aside, they do let themselves down at major tournaments.

And despite all their talent on the pitch, I fear for Argentina's ([6.6]) prospects under Diego Maradona. Given that for the early stages of Euro 2008 they were probably the best side in the tournament until they had a bad day at the office against Russia, have already qualified for South Africa and will have the likes of Robben, Van Persie and Sneijder at their peaks, I quite like the Netherland's's current odds of [15.0].

So what of the England Under 21s' chances in Sweden next week? Experience of English football fans tells me that there's a tendency to overate their own players who they label as world-class without actually comparing them to the opponents they are about to face. It's a bit like holding a full house in poker and going "all in" before you've thought about what your opponents might be holding themselves.

Looking through England's squad you'll find such familiar names as Theo Walcott, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Micah Richards, James Milner and Mark Noble who play week in week out in the Premier League. But take a look at Italy's and you'll find a fair few who do the same in Serie A plus some real gems in the form of Marco Motta, Sebastian Giovinco and Ignazio Abate. Plus the small matter of Mario Balotelli, who in a star-studded Inter Milan side made 30 appearances and scored nine goals. And it's a similar story with Spain.

As much as I liked Stuart Pearce as a player and admire him as a man, he is simply not able to get 100% out of his players the way Fabio Capello can. Whereas a semi-final place may well be within their reach, I'd happily lay them at [5.0] in the outright.

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