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La Liga betting: Real Madrid to finally return to winning ways

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Dan "The Betting Man" Fitch is tired of trying to predict what will happen in the topsy-turvy world of La Liga but thinks Real Madrid should prove too strong for Murcia in a high-scoring match

Do you ever get the feeling that your work is pointless? Every week I diligently knock out my copy on the battle to win La Liga, speculating on all the possible permutations that the forthcoming weekend's matches can bring.

Each round of games brings a chance for Real Madrid to kill the title race off, or for Barcelona to get right back into it. And what's this coming up over the horizon? Is it a plucky rural challenger, ready to knock the big boys off their perch, in the shape of Villarreal? Things always seems so promising. Drama seems just around the corner.

Then comes the maddening reality. As the matches unfurl, it becomes apparent that nobody wants to win this thing. If Real Madrid and Barcelona weren't amongst the richest teams in the world, I'd suspect that they'd bet on each other to win La Liga.

It's a good job that the two giants of Spanish football both started so well this season, as their form since Christmas has been more in keeping with a side that gets relegated. Speaking of which, it is relegation threatened Murcia that travel to Real Madrid this week. It's a game that both sides desperately need to win and given the way that Real Madrid have been playing, any result is possible.

Last weekend Madrid could count themselves lucky to scrape a 1-1 draw with Mallorca. Real should have been behind early on, but a perfectly good goal by Fernando Navarro was inexplicably disallowed, for a non-existent foul on Sergio Ramos. When you consider that the average footballer would happily fake his own death on the pitch to win a free kick, the fact that Madrid's players could not conceal their shock at this woeful decision, just went to prove how bizarre it was.

Real took advantage of this let off, when Robben went on a brilliant run, beating three players before expertly crossing, to give Wesley Sneijder a simple tap in. In the second half the referee decided to make up for his mistakes in the first, when he rather harshly sent off Ramos for two bookable offences. This gave Mallorca the impetus to press on and Valero scored a lovely equaliser. Madrid managed to hang on for a draw, but really could have lost had Mallorca finished better.

Luckily for Madrid, Barcelona failed to find their way past a resolute Getafe and limped to a goalless draw, whilst Villarreal lost their difficult away tie at Sevilla 2-0. This week Villarreal travel to Almeria, whilst Barcelona go to relegation threatened Recreativo Huelva. In theory both these games should be won by the challengers, though we've learnt better than to expect the expected in La Liga. Real Madrid remain hot favourites for the title at [1.13] which I still think is way too short, with Barcelona [13.0] and Villarreal [22.0].

Madrid have really lost their way following the injury to Ruud Van Nistlerooy that left them without an out and out striker. The Dutchman returned to training this week and has stated that he wants to be fit for what could be a climatic clash with Barcelona on May 7th. Van Nistlerooy has scored eleven goals before his injury and if he had stayed fit, the title would already be sewn up.

Murcia travel to Madrid in better form of late, having appointed the former national coach Javier Clemente. Since taking over, Clemente's team have recorded impressive home wins against Espanyol and last week, Valencia. However, their away form remains shocking, having not won in their last fifteen matches on the road. Murcia are seven points from safety and with just seven games remaining, it would take a miracle for the newly promoted side to retain their La Liga place.

Madrid are [1.24] with Murcia [16] and the draw [7.2]. I think that Madrid will return to winning ways this week, but it's a very short price, given their recent form. Far more value comes from the [1.63] available for over 2.5 goals, with last three Madrid home games breaking the three goal barrier. This could be the weekend that Madrid put us out of our misery and get a grip on the title.